Saturday, November 11, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 10

At 8-1, my fantasy point scoring machine has been firing on all cylinders almost every week, getting contributions from every position. With Donovan McNabb on bye in week 9, Jon Kitna filled in admirably and Vick was OK, but the real strength of my team was the running backs. With Tatum Bell out, I picked up Corey Dillon because of the matchup with the horrible Colts' defense. Dillon picked up two touchdowns as did Willie Parker and just about everyone else on my squad. Here's the game plan for week 10...

...Quarterbacks...

With Jon Kitna's fantasy emergence, I really do have a question of whether to start Michael Vick or Kitna every week. Kitina is going against the soft San Francisco defense, and Vick is going against a decent Cleveland defense. I'll roll with Vick because I love his ability to pick up chunks of points on the ground, and he has been establishing the passing game more effectively the last couple of weeks. I may regret leaving out Kitna, but I don't think he's at the point where you can start him every week. The 49ers did shut down the Vikings last week. McNabb has a good matchup against the Redkins, and he will likely get back on track with 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns...McNabb and Vick at QB

...Running Backs...

The triumverate of Willie Parker, Corey Dillon, and LaDanian Tomlinson was unbelievable in week 9, combining for an astonishing 7 touchdowns between them. Each player had at least two touchdowns. My only other running backs are Tatum Bell (who is suffering from turf toe) and Reggie Bush (who has been a big-time slump for a couple weeks now), so there isn't really much discussion this week on who to start.
Parker, Dillon, and Tomlinson

...Wide Receivers...

T.J. Houshmandzadeh is a no-brainer as he continue to pile up receptions and TDs every week. Donald Driver has recovered and gets the nod over Chris Chambers because it appears he has regained Favre's confidence. Chambers did have a bit of breakout game with a TD against the Bears last week, he still has Joey Harrington throwing to him, I don't have any faith in him. Darrell Jackson had a bit of a down game, but he is been a point-scoring machine this year, so no worries. There is now no way I can leave Colston on the bench at TE, and thankfully I have had him in the last two weeks to reap the benefits. L.J. Smith is now relegated to full-time bench duty. Housh, Driver, and Jackson at WR and Colston at TE...

...The Rest...

Well I'm projected for a 220-183 win, which is about where I am projected at every week by Yahoo! Last week I nearly hit 300, but I don't think all three of my running backs will perform that well again collectively. Now that I have pretty much wrapped up a playoff birth, it is more important to stock players that will be playing in week 16 and 17. So I will be patrolling the waivers for young guys on teams with losing records that will likely see increased duty near the end of the season.. Good luck all!

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 8

Well we're just about halfway through, and my team is still cruising along, without any real challengers to this point. We are moving past the bye weeks, and lineups will be easier to set—assuming of course you don't have any crippling injuries, i.e. Matt Hasselbeck or Shaun Alexander. Now although I don't have either player, my team will be affected by the loss of those players because my best receiver to this point has been Darrell Jackson. His production will surely be affected, but not to the point where he should be put on the bench. I will also be faced with difficult decisions at running back for the rest of the year because of the unpredictability of Willie Parker and the sudden slump of Reggie Bush the last couple of weeks.

Regardless, I am 6-1 and well ahead in points in my league, so there isn't a whole lot of room to complain. For now it's important to keep combing the waiver wire and also be on the lookout for running back situations where the backup would likely see lots of action in the last three weeks of the season. Last year Michael Turner and Tatum Bell had huge performances at the end of the season to help propel my squad to the championship game. It's never too early to start getting ready for the playoffs...

....Quarterbacks....

It took Donovan McNabb a while to get going last Sunday, but once he did, he ended up with tremendous numbers as usual. Although three picks killed the Eagles, they didn't kill his fantasy stats, as he made up for it by rushing for 75 yards and throwing three TDs and for 300 yards. A beat-up Jacksonville team awaits so 300 yards and a pair of TDs is on the docket again this week. Michael Vick came out of nowhere to throw four touchdowns for the first time in his career in week 8. Good thing I kept playing him despite Jon Kitna putting up better numbers, or I would have missed out on this colossal performance. He also threw two picks, but with four touchdowns I can live with those mistakes. A tough matchup at Cincinnati is looming this week, but Kitna and the Lions are on bye, so no debate this week...McNabb and Vick at QB...

....Running Backs....

With Reggie Bush on bye, I figured my squad wouldn't miss a beat, especially with Willie Parker playing against a horrible Atlanta rush defense. But Parker managed only 47 yards and no touchdowns, as the passing game picked up all five touchdowns for the Steelers! At least Ladanian Tomlinson continued his stellar play with a touchdown pass and reception. The Chargers are playing another soft defense (St. Louis), so another big day is expected. As for Mr. Parker, I don't know what to think. The Raiders have an OK defense, so I think I will give him another shot. Reggie Bush is going up against Baltimore's vicious run defense, so I will definitely toss him in on the bench. In this case I have to go strictly by matchup, so Parker is back in, but I want to see more consistency out of him. Tatum Bell is still a great start every week, picking up a TD and lots of yards the last two weeks. The Broncos are facing a poor Indianapolis run defense, but I would probably start him against any team in the league at this point...Parker and LT at RB and Bell at the WR/RB swing...

....Wide Receivers....

Donald Driver returned to my good graces with a great game in week 7, recording 10 catches for 93 yards and a touchdown. Luckily I didn't need these points to get the W last week, or I would have been pretty disappointed. He has now taken over for Chris Chambers officially, especially considering the Dolphins passed for 400 yards in week 7 and Chambers had only two catches for 29 yards and no touchdowns. Apparently Joey Harrington has some sort of problem with Chambers because he is not able to complete passes to him, although he is targeting him several times a game.The point is moot this week because the Dolphins are on bye, but I can now confidently say Driver is a must start because his receiving mate who had become Favre's favorite, Greg Jeffries, is injured and out for week 8. Darrell Jackson's numbers are going to suffer without Matt Hasselbeck, but I have no other option this week, so we'll see what happens. T.J. Houshmandzadeh continues to play like a number one receiver for the Bengals and is clearly a must start every week, no matter the opponent. It's time to put L.J. Smith on the bench this week because he is questionable (although it's a good sign that practiced on Friday) and I want to see if Marques Colston can step up in the TE slot. Housh, Driver, and Jackson at WR and Colston at TE....

...The Rest....

It's never a good feeling to play against a team that has Peyton Manning, but I have the one quarterback who has been putting up better stats than him, Donovan McNabb. As long as my squad does what its supposed to do, I'll get the win. Yahoo! projected score: Me: 219 My opponent 189....Good luck to all in week 8...

Saturday, October 21, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 7

In week 6 my squad returned to its former dominating self, putting up the highest point total in my league, just enough to beat the second highest point total for the week. A four touchdown performance from Ladanian Tomlinson and solid efforts from the rest of my squad were enough to secure the win and remain in first place. For the second week in a row, I left Willie Parker on the bench, so I will rectify that mistake this week...

....Quarterbacks....

Donovan McNabb had only two touchdowns in week 6—a disappointing game for him, and a good one for any other quarterback in the league. Not to worry though, several dropped passes and a touchdown via a reverse play will only plague him for one week, and everything should return to normal in week 7 against an average Tampa Bay defense. As for Michael Vick and Jon Kitna, it was pretty much the same thing: 14 points for Vick, and 15 for Kitna. I still like Vick because he is leading the league in yards per carry, and despite the fact that his completion percentage is horrible, he still has a higher threshold for points every week than Kitna (at least that's what I keep telling myself). So here I go throwing Vick in against another good defense (Pittsburg), while Kitna will stay on the bench against a mediocre Bills team. I'll give Vick one more week before I seriously consider keeping him on the bench...McNabb and Vick at QB...

....Running Backs....

Willie Parker has been putting up great numbers lately, and I haven't been reaping the benefits at all. Now that Pittsburg is playing a sieve of a run defense (Atlanta), I have no choice but to play him. Also, Lamont Jordan has reached the point in the season where I know he is not going to be even mildly productive because the Raiders are possibly the worst team in the history of the NFL. I finally dropped him so I could pick up an extra kicker since mine is on bye. Even though Reggie Bush didn't really do much against the Eagles last week (four catches for 35 yards), he is still among the league leaders in receptions, so there is no way he can be on the bench." Tatum Bell will continue to occupy the WR/RB swing slot for me after a decent 85 yards rushing and a touchdown. I'd better find another RB, though, since I only have three, and running backs get injured more than any other position....Parker, Bush, and Bell at RB, RB, and WR/RB respectively...

....Wide Receivers....

I now have two great receivers and question marks for all my other WRs. T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Darrell Jackson are both must-starts every week, as Chad Johnson continues to do a lot of talking and not much else, allowing his receiving mate to go off every week. As for Jackson, with Shaun Alexander on the bench, the Seahawks are a heavy passing team and Jackson is continuing to put up big reception numbers and frequent touchdowns. For the rest, I don't know what to expect on a weekly basis. Chris Chambers is by far the best receiver on the team, but Joey Harrington likes throwing to the other Dolphin receivers more than him for some reason. Maybe he's just used to throwing to the second string players. But Chambers is one of the best in the league at scoring touchdowns when the game's outcome has already been determined, so I'll stick with him for now. Marques Colston is on bye, so I don't have to contemplate his status, and my only tough decision this week was whether to leave Donald Driver on the bench after resting his rib injury during his bye week in week 6. He hasn't been scoring that many points in the last 2 games before the bye, so I'll have to wait and see if he is healthy, and then maybe consider re-inserting him in week 8.

...The Rest....

I appear to have an easy win on hand for week 7, with Yahoo! predicting a 203 to 145 win. My opponent has one thing that I don't...Matt Leinart. Some moron in my league was dumb enough to drop him before the Monday night game where he threw two touchdowns and over 200 yards against the best defense in the league...but I was too low on the waiver list to grab him...The consolation is that my team is far superior to his (here are some of his starters for the week: Wes Welker, Jericho Crotchery, and Keenan McCardell at WR, Maurice Morris and Maurice Jones-Drew at RB). OK, I'll stop because it's obvious his team is horrible and has no chance to take me down. But we'll see...

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

It's all up for grabs now...

With one last second field goal, John Carney single-handedly leveled the playing field in the NFC East, not to mention solidifying New Orleans as the NFC South leader by a game over Carolina.

As it stands now, the Eagles are 4-2, the Cowboys and Giants are tied at 3-2, and the Redskins are in big trouble at 2-4, having just lost to Tennessee! Despite being in the lead, the Eagles are in no way the frontrunner for the division. That honor goes to the Giants, who everyone dismissed after a 1-2 start(a narrow loss to Indianapolis, an amazing comeback win against Philly, and a horrible blowout to Seattle). The Giants are the winners of two straight(dominating performances against Washington and on the road against Atlanta). The Giants have played a much tougher schedule than the Eagles and are only a half-game back, and have already beaten Philly in Philadelphia!

If the Giants can steal a road win at Dallas on Monday night, their stock to win the division will skyrocket, regardless of if the Eagles stay ahead by a half-game with a win in Tampa. They will have made it through the most difficult part of their schedule with a 4-2 record, and will be in control of the division having beaten all three teams, two on the road.

The Cowboys have other plans, and after a sluggish start in Dallas before eventually throttling the Texans, Dallas is looking strong on both sides of the ball. With Bledsoe connecting with TO and Terry Glenn on a regular basis, and Julius Jones and Marion Barber taking advantage of the extra safety help (tied up doubling the receivers), the Cowboys offense looks unstoppable at times. It's important to note that the Cowboys' offense has not put up a dominating performance for an entire game though, which could be their eventual downfall against New York.

New York already showed that it is a difficult team to put away, and if the Cowboys let up on either side of the ball, the Giants will be able to take them out. Tiki Barber is a man on a mission in his last season, leading the league with 533 yards rushing on 102 carries. And when Barber is finding room to run, Eli Manning can open it up with play-action and deep balls to Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress. When the run game isn't working, the Giants have struggled this year, so if Dallas is able to stop the run throughout the contest, they will likely be able to hold on a for the win.

My prediction is Dallas will jump out early on New York, and then play it safe, and try to run out the clock. Giants' coach Tom Coughlin will be conservative in the early-going, choosing to run often, and not succeeding against a strong Dallas defensive front. As the game wears on, Coughlin will open things up in the passing game, and it should be just enough to give the Giants the W, and put them well on their way to winning the NFC East.

As for the Eagles in Tampa Bay, they better show up for both halves this week. With the defense taking a step back against New Orleans (no sacks, and barely any pressure on the QB), the offense needs to step up and put points up on the board throughout the game, not just in bunches. The Saints used a lot of quick 3-step drops to elude the pressure, and I'm sure every team in the league will watch the tape to see how the Saints beat the pressure. The question now is whether or not the Eagles can find an answer for the new approach their opponents will be using. We shall see in the coming weeks...

Saturday, October 14, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 6

Week 5 was a wake-up call for me, as I had been cruising through the league with no problem for four weeks, and cockily assumed that I would be able to keep it going. But with all the byes and several players on my team playing as if their teams were on byes, I got killed, and now am in danger of falling into second place. So here is the gameplan to get back on top in week 6...

...Quarterbacks...

On second thought, Jon Kitna still did give me 15 points in week 5, which is actually pretty decent in my league(25 yds for a point, TD = 6 points, INT = -2 points). But even with a seemingly good matchup against Buffalo, I have to go with Michael Vick against the New York Giants. The Giants are coming off a big win against Washington in which they totally shutdown the Redskins. But, they will not be able to perform the same act against Vick and the Falcons, who are primed to run all over them. Michael Strahan was commenting earlier in the week that the Giants don't need to run any special schemes to contain Vick, which was probably one of the stupider things I have heard a player say this year. Uh, sorry "Mike", but every team in the NFL prepares a special scheme to stop Vick, and you're a fool to suggest otherwise.

Anyway, Vick doesn't appear to be caught up on trying to be a pocket passer this year, and he will take every opportunity to run the ball against New York, putting up a couple scores on the board. As for Donovan McNabb, I don't really need to say much more than if he had Donte Stallworth, his numbers would be even BETTER than the incredible 1600 yards passing, 14 total touchdowns, 1 interception, 87 yards rushing he has managed so far...wow...McNabb and Vick at QB....

.....Running Backs....

Well, if you can't start Lamont Jordan against the 49ers, who can you start him against? Definitely not the Broncos..In hindsight, I should have played Willie Parker last week, even going against the stout San Diego defense, but it wouldn't have affected the outcome, so who cares? For that reason, I will leave Parker on the bench again this week. Actually, that's not it all. Some moron in my league dropped Tatum Bell on Sunday, and I was lucky enough to pick him up on the waiver wire just in time to throw him in against the hapless Raiders.

Hopefully Bell can put some life into my team and get me back into the win column. Ladanian is facing the aforementioned 49ers, and I am only worried that Michael Turner will steal some of his touchdowns because the Chargers will be blowing the 49ers out. Reggie Bush finally got his first NFL touchdown in week 5 on a punt return , and he had a huge game overall for me(my league counts return yards and is PPR(points per reception)). So yeh, I can't sit Bush because he is leading the NFL in receptions! NO matter that he has looked terrible running the ball....Bush and Tomlinson at RB and Bell in the WR/RB swing...(hopefully Willie Parker doesn't come back to haunt me again)...

....Wide Receivers....

Donald Driver thankfully has a bye this week, because he has been hurt, quite frankly, I might of have had to bench him if he were playing. Driver has become the second option in Green Bay, with rookie Greg Jennings stealing the show, getting more looks and scoring all the receiving touchdowns for the Packers. Darrell Jackson is back in this week, and should see a lot of balls with receiving mate Bobby Engram out. Jackson has been my best free agent pickup this year, and his knee hasn't been a problem. Housh is also back, and is looking to blow up against Tampa Bay, who many experts are actually picking to upset the Bengals in week 6. Regardless Housh has been putting up better numbers than Chad Johnson this year, and I can't believe that I grabbed him near the end of the 8th round, and some idiot took Johnson with the last pick in the 1st round.

Ok so moving on, I can't bring myself to put Chris Chambers on the bench this year. Maybe it's because last year I was playing the team that had him when he 20 catches for like 250 yards and two touchdowns. I wasn't encouraged last week by the fact that Joey Harrington was inexplicably throwing to Wes Welker on like every play. I have to put rookie Colston back on the bench after doing absolutely nothing in week 6, but if you have him in your league, you should probably play him at TE. I myself have L.J. Smith, so I have the luxury of stowing Colston away for now...Chambers, Jackson, Housh at WR, Smith at TE....

...the rest...

Well week 6 is going to be a tough battle, but I caught one break in that Tom Brady, his best QB, is out on bye. Instead he is rolling with Matt Leinart, who is almost a lock to put up negative points this week against the Bears. I'm a little wary of Terrell Owens(his best WR) going against Houston, who has the worst pass defense in the league), but his other WRs are Drew Bennett and Joe Horn, so I should be OK. At running back he has Kevin Jones, Julius Jones,and Cadillac Williams, which is a decent trio, but I think I easily have a better one, and unless the fantasy "stars" align themselves just right in week 6, I will be back in sole possession of first place...Good luck to all...

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Week 5 Fantasy Recap....ouch....

Week 5 was a rough week for fantasy players all-around with several crucial byes. There is six byes again in week 6, so having a deep team in all positions is crucial. Fortunately this week I have more options at receiver with T.J. Houshmandzadah and Darrell Jackson returning to action, as well as Michael Vick at the quarterback position. Jon Kitna was a disaster fill-in start(3 picks, a fumble, 2 TDs), and even though he has more fantasy points than Vick on average per week, Vick is still a much better play because of his potential to put up better all-around numbers.

Anyway, I reluctantly have to admit that in week 5 saw me take my first defeat, as my whole team didn't bother to show up, with the notable exceptions of Donovan McNabb and Reggie Bush. My receivers(Donald Driver, Marques Colston, and Chris Chambers) combined for a whopping 11 catches and 92 yards and 0 touchdowns. Ladanian Tomlinson had a horrible game(34 yards rushing, but he did have 8 receptions at least to help me in my PPR format) and Lamont Jordan couldn't even score a touchdown or break 75 yards against a terrible San Francisco 49er team.

These horrible performances on offense were matched by my defense, which managed 45 measly points as a unit(I start 5 players, a good individual score is 15-20). Not ot mention the fact that my top point man for the season, Mike Peterson(MLB from Jacksonville), tore a pectoral muscle, and will be out for the season. I won't bore you with the details anymore, because I know most people play only with team defenses, but suffice to say I got my butt kicked this week, but I am still on top of the league because I have scored the most points. A matchup with the second place team is looming in week 6, so be sure to check back later on in the week....