Saturday, November 11, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 10

At 8-1, my fantasy point scoring machine has been firing on all cylinders almost every week, getting contributions from every position. With Donovan McNabb on bye in week 9, Jon Kitna filled in admirably and Vick was OK, but the real strength of my team was the running backs. With Tatum Bell out, I picked up Corey Dillon because of the matchup with the horrible Colts' defense. Dillon picked up two touchdowns as did Willie Parker and just about everyone else on my squad. Here's the game plan for week 10...

...Quarterbacks...

With Jon Kitna's fantasy emergence, I really do have a question of whether to start Michael Vick or Kitna every week. Kitina is going against the soft San Francisco defense, and Vick is going against a decent Cleveland defense. I'll roll with Vick because I love his ability to pick up chunks of points on the ground, and he has been establishing the passing game more effectively the last couple of weeks. I may regret leaving out Kitna, but I don't think he's at the point where you can start him every week. The 49ers did shut down the Vikings last week. McNabb has a good matchup against the Redkins, and he will likely get back on track with 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns...McNabb and Vick at QB

...Running Backs...

The triumverate of Willie Parker, Corey Dillon, and LaDanian Tomlinson was unbelievable in week 9, combining for an astonishing 7 touchdowns between them. Each player had at least two touchdowns. My only other running backs are Tatum Bell (who is suffering from turf toe) and Reggie Bush (who has been a big-time slump for a couple weeks now), so there isn't really much discussion this week on who to start.
Parker, Dillon, and Tomlinson

...Wide Receivers...

T.J. Houshmandzadeh is a no-brainer as he continue to pile up receptions and TDs every week. Donald Driver has recovered and gets the nod over Chris Chambers because it appears he has regained Favre's confidence. Chambers did have a bit of breakout game with a TD against the Bears last week, he still has Joey Harrington throwing to him, I don't have any faith in him. Darrell Jackson had a bit of a down game, but he is been a point-scoring machine this year, so no worries. There is now no way I can leave Colston on the bench at TE, and thankfully I have had him in the last two weeks to reap the benefits. L.J. Smith is now relegated to full-time bench duty. Housh, Driver, and Jackson at WR and Colston at TE...

...The Rest...

Well I'm projected for a 220-183 win, which is about where I am projected at every week by Yahoo! Last week I nearly hit 300, but I don't think all three of my running backs will perform that well again collectively. Now that I have pretty much wrapped up a playoff birth, it is more important to stock players that will be playing in week 16 and 17. So I will be patrolling the waivers for young guys on teams with losing records that will likely see increased duty near the end of the season.. Good luck all!

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 8

Well we're just about halfway through, and my team is still cruising along, without any real challengers to this point. We are moving past the bye weeks, and lineups will be easier to set—assuming of course you don't have any crippling injuries, i.e. Matt Hasselbeck or Shaun Alexander. Now although I don't have either player, my team will be affected by the loss of those players because my best receiver to this point has been Darrell Jackson. His production will surely be affected, but not to the point where he should be put on the bench. I will also be faced with difficult decisions at running back for the rest of the year because of the unpredictability of Willie Parker and the sudden slump of Reggie Bush the last couple of weeks.

Regardless, I am 6-1 and well ahead in points in my league, so there isn't a whole lot of room to complain. For now it's important to keep combing the waiver wire and also be on the lookout for running back situations where the backup would likely see lots of action in the last three weeks of the season. Last year Michael Turner and Tatum Bell had huge performances at the end of the season to help propel my squad to the championship game. It's never too early to start getting ready for the playoffs...

....Quarterbacks....

It took Donovan McNabb a while to get going last Sunday, but once he did, he ended up with tremendous numbers as usual. Although three picks killed the Eagles, they didn't kill his fantasy stats, as he made up for it by rushing for 75 yards and throwing three TDs and for 300 yards. A beat-up Jacksonville team awaits so 300 yards and a pair of TDs is on the docket again this week. Michael Vick came out of nowhere to throw four touchdowns for the first time in his career in week 8. Good thing I kept playing him despite Jon Kitna putting up better numbers, or I would have missed out on this colossal performance. He also threw two picks, but with four touchdowns I can live with those mistakes. A tough matchup at Cincinnati is looming this week, but Kitna and the Lions are on bye, so no debate this week...McNabb and Vick at QB...

....Running Backs....

With Reggie Bush on bye, I figured my squad wouldn't miss a beat, especially with Willie Parker playing against a horrible Atlanta rush defense. But Parker managed only 47 yards and no touchdowns, as the passing game picked up all five touchdowns for the Steelers! At least Ladanian Tomlinson continued his stellar play with a touchdown pass and reception. The Chargers are playing another soft defense (St. Louis), so another big day is expected. As for Mr. Parker, I don't know what to think. The Raiders have an OK defense, so I think I will give him another shot. Reggie Bush is going up against Baltimore's vicious run defense, so I will definitely toss him in on the bench. In this case I have to go strictly by matchup, so Parker is back in, but I want to see more consistency out of him. Tatum Bell is still a great start every week, picking up a TD and lots of yards the last two weeks. The Broncos are facing a poor Indianapolis run defense, but I would probably start him against any team in the league at this point...Parker and LT at RB and Bell at the WR/RB swing...

....Wide Receivers....

Donald Driver returned to my good graces with a great game in week 7, recording 10 catches for 93 yards and a touchdown. Luckily I didn't need these points to get the W last week, or I would have been pretty disappointed. He has now taken over for Chris Chambers officially, especially considering the Dolphins passed for 400 yards in week 7 and Chambers had only two catches for 29 yards and no touchdowns. Apparently Joey Harrington has some sort of problem with Chambers because he is not able to complete passes to him, although he is targeting him several times a game.The point is moot this week because the Dolphins are on bye, but I can now confidently say Driver is a must start because his receiving mate who had become Favre's favorite, Greg Jeffries, is injured and out for week 8. Darrell Jackson's numbers are going to suffer without Matt Hasselbeck, but I have no other option this week, so we'll see what happens. T.J. Houshmandzadeh continues to play like a number one receiver for the Bengals and is clearly a must start every week, no matter the opponent. It's time to put L.J. Smith on the bench this week because he is questionable (although it's a good sign that practiced on Friday) and I want to see if Marques Colston can step up in the TE slot. Housh, Driver, and Jackson at WR and Colston at TE....

...The Rest....

It's never a good feeling to play against a team that has Peyton Manning, but I have the one quarterback who has been putting up better stats than him, Donovan McNabb. As long as my squad does what its supposed to do, I'll get the win. Yahoo! projected score: Me: 219 My opponent 189....Good luck to all in week 8...

Saturday, October 21, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 7

In week 6 my squad returned to its former dominating self, putting up the highest point total in my league, just enough to beat the second highest point total for the week. A four touchdown performance from Ladanian Tomlinson and solid efforts from the rest of my squad were enough to secure the win and remain in first place. For the second week in a row, I left Willie Parker on the bench, so I will rectify that mistake this week...

....Quarterbacks....

Donovan McNabb had only two touchdowns in week 6—a disappointing game for him, and a good one for any other quarterback in the league. Not to worry though, several dropped passes and a touchdown via a reverse play will only plague him for one week, and everything should return to normal in week 7 against an average Tampa Bay defense. As for Michael Vick and Jon Kitna, it was pretty much the same thing: 14 points for Vick, and 15 for Kitna. I still like Vick because he is leading the league in yards per carry, and despite the fact that his completion percentage is horrible, he still has a higher threshold for points every week than Kitna (at least that's what I keep telling myself). So here I go throwing Vick in against another good defense (Pittsburg), while Kitna will stay on the bench against a mediocre Bills team. I'll give Vick one more week before I seriously consider keeping him on the bench...McNabb and Vick at QB...

....Running Backs....

Willie Parker has been putting up great numbers lately, and I haven't been reaping the benefits at all. Now that Pittsburg is playing a sieve of a run defense (Atlanta), I have no choice but to play him. Also, Lamont Jordan has reached the point in the season where I know he is not going to be even mildly productive because the Raiders are possibly the worst team in the history of the NFL. I finally dropped him so I could pick up an extra kicker since mine is on bye. Even though Reggie Bush didn't really do much against the Eagles last week (four catches for 35 yards), he is still among the league leaders in receptions, so there is no way he can be on the bench." Tatum Bell will continue to occupy the WR/RB swing slot for me after a decent 85 yards rushing and a touchdown. I'd better find another RB, though, since I only have three, and running backs get injured more than any other position....Parker, Bush, and Bell at RB, RB, and WR/RB respectively...

....Wide Receivers....

I now have two great receivers and question marks for all my other WRs. T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Darrell Jackson are both must-starts every week, as Chad Johnson continues to do a lot of talking and not much else, allowing his receiving mate to go off every week. As for Jackson, with Shaun Alexander on the bench, the Seahawks are a heavy passing team and Jackson is continuing to put up big reception numbers and frequent touchdowns. For the rest, I don't know what to expect on a weekly basis. Chris Chambers is by far the best receiver on the team, but Joey Harrington likes throwing to the other Dolphin receivers more than him for some reason. Maybe he's just used to throwing to the second string players. But Chambers is one of the best in the league at scoring touchdowns when the game's outcome has already been determined, so I'll stick with him for now. Marques Colston is on bye, so I don't have to contemplate his status, and my only tough decision this week was whether to leave Donald Driver on the bench after resting his rib injury during his bye week in week 6. He hasn't been scoring that many points in the last 2 games before the bye, so I'll have to wait and see if he is healthy, and then maybe consider re-inserting him in week 8.

...The Rest....

I appear to have an easy win on hand for week 7, with Yahoo! predicting a 203 to 145 win. My opponent has one thing that I don't...Matt Leinart. Some moron in my league was dumb enough to drop him before the Monday night game where he threw two touchdowns and over 200 yards against the best defense in the league...but I was too low on the waiver list to grab him...The consolation is that my team is far superior to his (here are some of his starters for the week: Wes Welker, Jericho Crotchery, and Keenan McCardell at WR, Maurice Morris and Maurice Jones-Drew at RB). OK, I'll stop because it's obvious his team is horrible and has no chance to take me down. But we'll see...

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

It's all up for grabs now...

With one last second field goal, John Carney single-handedly leveled the playing field in the NFC East, not to mention solidifying New Orleans as the NFC South leader by a game over Carolina.

As it stands now, the Eagles are 4-2, the Cowboys and Giants are tied at 3-2, and the Redskins are in big trouble at 2-4, having just lost to Tennessee! Despite being in the lead, the Eagles are in no way the frontrunner for the division. That honor goes to the Giants, who everyone dismissed after a 1-2 start(a narrow loss to Indianapolis, an amazing comeback win against Philly, and a horrible blowout to Seattle). The Giants are the winners of two straight(dominating performances against Washington and on the road against Atlanta). The Giants have played a much tougher schedule than the Eagles and are only a half-game back, and have already beaten Philly in Philadelphia!

If the Giants can steal a road win at Dallas on Monday night, their stock to win the division will skyrocket, regardless of if the Eagles stay ahead by a half-game with a win in Tampa. They will have made it through the most difficult part of their schedule with a 4-2 record, and will be in control of the division having beaten all three teams, two on the road.

The Cowboys have other plans, and after a sluggish start in Dallas before eventually throttling the Texans, Dallas is looking strong on both sides of the ball. With Bledsoe connecting with TO and Terry Glenn on a regular basis, and Julius Jones and Marion Barber taking advantage of the extra safety help (tied up doubling the receivers), the Cowboys offense looks unstoppable at times. It's important to note that the Cowboys' offense has not put up a dominating performance for an entire game though, which could be their eventual downfall against New York.

New York already showed that it is a difficult team to put away, and if the Cowboys let up on either side of the ball, the Giants will be able to take them out. Tiki Barber is a man on a mission in his last season, leading the league with 533 yards rushing on 102 carries. And when Barber is finding room to run, Eli Manning can open it up with play-action and deep balls to Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress. When the run game isn't working, the Giants have struggled this year, so if Dallas is able to stop the run throughout the contest, they will likely be able to hold on a for the win.

My prediction is Dallas will jump out early on New York, and then play it safe, and try to run out the clock. Giants' coach Tom Coughlin will be conservative in the early-going, choosing to run often, and not succeeding against a strong Dallas defensive front. As the game wears on, Coughlin will open things up in the passing game, and it should be just enough to give the Giants the W, and put them well on their way to winning the NFC East.

As for the Eagles in Tampa Bay, they better show up for both halves this week. With the defense taking a step back against New Orleans (no sacks, and barely any pressure on the QB), the offense needs to step up and put points up on the board throughout the game, not just in bunches. The Saints used a lot of quick 3-step drops to elude the pressure, and I'm sure every team in the league will watch the tape to see how the Saints beat the pressure. The question now is whether or not the Eagles can find an answer for the new approach their opponents will be using. We shall see in the coming weeks...

Saturday, October 14, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 6

Week 5 was a wake-up call for me, as I had been cruising through the league with no problem for four weeks, and cockily assumed that I would be able to keep it going. But with all the byes and several players on my team playing as if their teams were on byes, I got killed, and now am in danger of falling into second place. So here is the gameplan to get back on top in week 6...

...Quarterbacks...

On second thought, Jon Kitna still did give me 15 points in week 5, which is actually pretty decent in my league(25 yds for a point, TD = 6 points, INT = -2 points). But even with a seemingly good matchup against Buffalo, I have to go with Michael Vick against the New York Giants. The Giants are coming off a big win against Washington in which they totally shutdown the Redskins. But, they will not be able to perform the same act against Vick and the Falcons, who are primed to run all over them. Michael Strahan was commenting earlier in the week that the Giants don't need to run any special schemes to contain Vick, which was probably one of the stupider things I have heard a player say this year. Uh, sorry "Mike", but every team in the NFL prepares a special scheme to stop Vick, and you're a fool to suggest otherwise.

Anyway, Vick doesn't appear to be caught up on trying to be a pocket passer this year, and he will take every opportunity to run the ball against New York, putting up a couple scores on the board. As for Donovan McNabb, I don't really need to say much more than if he had Donte Stallworth, his numbers would be even BETTER than the incredible 1600 yards passing, 14 total touchdowns, 1 interception, 87 yards rushing he has managed so far...wow...McNabb and Vick at QB....

.....Running Backs....

Well, if you can't start Lamont Jordan against the 49ers, who can you start him against? Definitely not the Broncos..In hindsight, I should have played Willie Parker last week, even going against the stout San Diego defense, but it wouldn't have affected the outcome, so who cares? For that reason, I will leave Parker on the bench again this week. Actually, that's not it all. Some moron in my league dropped Tatum Bell on Sunday, and I was lucky enough to pick him up on the waiver wire just in time to throw him in against the hapless Raiders.

Hopefully Bell can put some life into my team and get me back into the win column. Ladanian is facing the aforementioned 49ers, and I am only worried that Michael Turner will steal some of his touchdowns because the Chargers will be blowing the 49ers out. Reggie Bush finally got his first NFL touchdown in week 5 on a punt return , and he had a huge game overall for me(my league counts return yards and is PPR(points per reception)). So yeh, I can't sit Bush because he is leading the NFL in receptions! NO matter that he has looked terrible running the ball....Bush and Tomlinson at RB and Bell in the WR/RB swing...(hopefully Willie Parker doesn't come back to haunt me again)...

....Wide Receivers....

Donald Driver thankfully has a bye this week, because he has been hurt, quite frankly, I might of have had to bench him if he were playing. Driver has become the second option in Green Bay, with rookie Greg Jennings stealing the show, getting more looks and scoring all the receiving touchdowns for the Packers. Darrell Jackson is back in this week, and should see a lot of balls with receiving mate Bobby Engram out. Jackson has been my best free agent pickup this year, and his knee hasn't been a problem. Housh is also back, and is looking to blow up against Tampa Bay, who many experts are actually picking to upset the Bengals in week 6. Regardless Housh has been putting up better numbers than Chad Johnson this year, and I can't believe that I grabbed him near the end of the 8th round, and some idiot took Johnson with the last pick in the 1st round.

Ok so moving on, I can't bring myself to put Chris Chambers on the bench this year. Maybe it's because last year I was playing the team that had him when he 20 catches for like 250 yards and two touchdowns. I wasn't encouraged last week by the fact that Joey Harrington was inexplicably throwing to Wes Welker on like every play. I have to put rookie Colston back on the bench after doing absolutely nothing in week 6, but if you have him in your league, you should probably play him at TE. I myself have L.J. Smith, so I have the luxury of stowing Colston away for now...Chambers, Jackson, Housh at WR, Smith at TE....

...the rest...

Well week 6 is going to be a tough battle, but I caught one break in that Tom Brady, his best QB, is out on bye. Instead he is rolling with Matt Leinart, who is almost a lock to put up negative points this week against the Bears. I'm a little wary of Terrell Owens(his best WR) going against Houston, who has the worst pass defense in the league), but his other WRs are Drew Bennett and Joe Horn, so I should be OK. At running back he has Kevin Jones, Julius Jones,and Cadillac Williams, which is a decent trio, but I think I easily have a better one, and unless the fantasy "stars" align themselves just right in week 6, I will be back in sole possession of first place...Good luck to all...

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Week 5 Fantasy Recap....ouch....

Week 5 was a rough week for fantasy players all-around with several crucial byes. There is six byes again in week 6, so having a deep team in all positions is crucial. Fortunately this week I have more options at receiver with T.J. Houshmandzadah and Darrell Jackson returning to action, as well as Michael Vick at the quarterback position. Jon Kitna was a disaster fill-in start(3 picks, a fumble, 2 TDs), and even though he has more fantasy points than Vick on average per week, Vick is still a much better play because of his potential to put up better all-around numbers.

Anyway, I reluctantly have to admit that in week 5 saw me take my first defeat, as my whole team didn't bother to show up, with the notable exceptions of Donovan McNabb and Reggie Bush. My receivers(Donald Driver, Marques Colston, and Chris Chambers) combined for a whopping 11 catches and 92 yards and 0 touchdowns. Ladanian Tomlinson had a horrible game(34 yards rushing, but he did have 8 receptions at least to help me in my PPR format) and Lamont Jordan couldn't even score a touchdown or break 75 yards against a terrible San Francisco 49er team.

These horrible performances on offense were matched by my defense, which managed 45 measly points as a unit(I start 5 players, a good individual score is 15-20). Not ot mention the fact that my top point man for the season, Mike Peterson(MLB from Jacksonville), tore a pectoral muscle, and will be out for the season. I won't bore you with the details anymore, because I know most people play only with team defenses, but suffice to say I got my butt kicked this week, but I am still on top of the league because I have scored the most points. A matchup with the second place team is looming in week 6, so be sure to check back later on in the week....

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Eagles Take Charge in NFC East, For Now...

The Eagles came up with a stop when they needed it the most. With the Cowboys only 3 yards away form sending the game into overtime, Drew Bledsoe threw a game-ending interception, and the Eagles grabbed control of the division, for now anyways.

The Eagles beat the Cowboys by continually getting pressure on Drew Bledsoe with its defensive line and timely blitzes. They recorded seven sacks and forced five turnovers. The depth of the defensive line, even without Jevon Kearse, is the backbone of the team, and could be the reason make another Super Bowl run. Philly's run defense is also improved this year, despite looking atrocious in the first half against the Cowboys. Although injuries have already hit the defense pretty hard, with cornerbacks Lito Sheppard and Rod Hood both missing, the defense is playing well as a unit and backups like Joselio Hanson are doing a good job of filling in.

The Eagles' stock is soaring now, but Eagles' fan shouldn't start celebrating too much, because they have played a much easier schedule than both Dallas and New York.

New York has lost to Indianapolis and Seattle (both good teams) and beaten Philly and Washington. Dallas has lost to Jacksonville and Philly and beaten Washington (who the jury is still out on) and Tennessee. The Eagles have beaten three horrible teams in Green Bay, San Francisco, and Houston and one good team in Dallas, and of course lost to New York. The conclusion is that although it appears the Eagles have separated themselves from the rest of the NFC East, things will probably will become cluttered once the Eagles start playing some tougher teams. They have yet to play either of the two good AFC South teams (Jacksonville or Indy), and would be fortunate to gain a split again them. Not to mention the horrible back-to-back-back road trip through the rest of the NFC East to finish the season. The Eagles must have atleast a 2 game lead or hope that one or two of the teams they play in that brutal stretch is eliminated from the playoff hunt, and has only pride to play for.

The Giants finally played a complete game, totally dominating the Redskins in the NFC East "undercard", as ESPN anaylists refered to it. It was a mostly uneventful game, with both teams struggling to move the ball for much of the first half, until the Giants broke through. Washington had shown considerable improvement on offense the last couple weeks, highlighted by a high-scoring overtime win against Jacksonville last week. But the key to that game was how they got Santana Moss involved.

Moss caught three touchdowns, including the game-winning TD against Jacksonville, but mysteriously had only 3 catches for 39 yarda against New York. With Santana Moss, he's such a dynamic playmaker, all you need to do is get him the ball with some space 7-8 times a game, and he will make things happen. If you're Dan Snyder, you got to be wondering what on Earth you brought in highly-respected offensive coordinator Al Saunders for when the best player (in my opinion, although some may say Clinton Portis a.k.a. Dolemite Jenkins) on your team can't even get the ball.

Another key to the game was that Eli Manning was very accurate, connecting on 69 percent of his passes. Manning is not typically a high-percentage passer, so it remains to be seen of this performance was an anomaly or a sign of things to come. He just may have the best combination of receivers in the NFC East to throw to, in Jeremy Shockey, a reborn Amani Toomer (just two years ago Toomer went the whole season without catching a TD), and Plaxico Burress. The only problem is Shockey and Burress can be headcases at times, so when the Giants face adversity, these two are usually quick to point the finger at others.

New York's matchup in Atlanta should be a good measuring stick for them, as we can see if they match the same defensive intensity they showed against Washington...

Saturday, October 07, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 5

Thanks to a monster game from Donovan McNabb(4 TDs and almost 300 yards), I was able to pull out a narrow victory in week 4 and remain undefeated. Michael Vick has been in a slump the last couple of weeks, as he has been unable to put any touchdowns on the board. Besides McNabb, the rest of my squad was average at best, and I left several players on the bench who had big games. Thanks to byes, I will have to use almost all of my bench this week...

....Quarterbacks...

With Vick on bye, I will turn to Jon Kitna, who has actually been putting up better numbers than Vick lately. In Week 4 Kitna had 280 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Going against a weak Green Bay defense, Kitna is a must start in two quarterback leagues, and unless you have an elite QB, you should probably start him in one QB leagues as well. He will put up about the same numbers he did in week 5. With Kitna, there will always be a couple mistakes, so an interception and fumble here and there is to be expected. In week 4, McNabb broke out of his shell, running for 47 yards and two touchdowns. When the Eagles were struggling, McNabb put them on his back, and started running the ball to pick up crucial first downs. He has been predominantly a pocket passes the last couple of years, but now that he is healthy, a rushing TD and some yards is a definite possibility every week. McNabb will not have great numbers in week 5, as the Cowboys have a better defense than the Eagles have seen all season, but 250 yards and a two touchdowns are realistic expectations...Rolling with Kitna and McNabb in week 5...

....Running Backs....

Reggie Bush has not been running the ball well lately and still has not scored a touchdown. I am only keeping him on the field because he doing a lot of damage through the air. If Willie Parker wasn't going agains the toughest run defense in the league this week (San Diego), I would probably start Parker over Bush, as New Orleans is facing Tampa Bay, which has been a sieve on run defense this year. My surprise start this week is Lamont Jordan, who torched a terrible Cleveland defense for a 120 yards and a touchdown in week 4. Jordan is going up against another awful defense in San Francisco, and will probably have a big game, in spite of the ridiculously bad offensive live working in front of him. Ladanian Tomlinson is on pace to break the record for most carries ever in a season, which is good and bad. It means he will continue to put big yardage numbers, but also he is at a greater risk to be injured, but he hasn't shown up on the injury report yet this year, so we'll see..Bush and Tomlinson at RB and Jordan in the WR/RB swing spot...

...Wide Receivers....

Byes for Darrell Jackson and T.J. Houshmandzadah hurt this week, in addition to Donald Driver being questionable. But the latest reports from Green Bay are that Driver will start, so I have to throw him, because I have no other options. Driver should have his usual 12-15 points(6-7 catches, 70-80 yards), and may even break out for a touchdown. The Rams' defense has not looked good lately, letting the Lions of all teams get 30 points on them! Chris Chambers is still not catching many balls, but he did put a touchdown on the board last week. WIth Joey Harrington starting this week, Chambers' value may actually be increased, because Chambers is such a big target, Harrington will probably be look to him as a crutch in his first start for the Dolphins. Marques Colston has been tearing up the league, and I haven't had in him in the lineup to take advantage once. For the season, he is now my second highest scoring receiver behind Darrell Jackson, so I should probably him have in next week too, but for week 5, I have n ochoice but to roll with him....Driver, Chambers, and Colston at WR....


...the rest...

I may suffer my first defeat this week, with three key players on the bench this week, but if Jordan and Colston can step up in week 5 and McNabb can continue his unbelievable season, another victory is within reach. Good luck to all on week 5...

Friday, September 29, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 4

After an embarrassingly easy victory in week 3, it might be easy for me to get cocky and think I don't need to make any changes. Sitting at 3-0 and with a big lead in points over the rest of the league, it is important to realize it is a long season and there is still a lot of football to be played. My roster now will probably be much different from what it looks like in week 16 because of injuries. Even though I appear to be deep in every position, I need to constantly be monitoring the waiver wire, and grabbing players I can plug in just in case any of my players go down.

I recently grabbed Marques Colton as an insurance policy. In three games he already has 15 catches for 202 yards and two touchdowns. His eligibility as both a TE and a WR should be very beneficial, because a TE that catches a lot of balls every week is hard to come by. Since L.J. Smith can't go a week without being on the injury list, I will likely have to use him at TE at least a couple of times.

.....Quarterbacks...

Donovan McNabb continues to silence critics as he is on his way to another great season, and this time without TO. He hasn't really faced any great defenses yet, but considering how many times the Eagles will ask him to put the ball in the air, there is no way you can put him on the bench this year, no matter who the Eagles play. Not that you need to worry about the Packers defense this week, because they haven't exactly been a defensive juggernaut. Michael Vick should bounce back this week against the Cardinals after a miserable performance against the Saints. Hopefully Vick doesn't mail it in after one quarter, but I really think he will be itching to have a big game, and the Cardinals don't have the defense to stop him. As Atlanta's bye week approaches, it also important for me to be aware of how my backup Jon Kitna is performing. He's not exactly lighting it up, but he is not turning the ball over and has thrown for 800 yards and touchdowns. So I should be able to get "bye" for one week with those kind of numbers.

....Running Backs...

Not a whole lot for me to contemplate this week with Ladanian Tomlinson returning from bye week and Reggie Bush still performing at a high level (well at least for PPR leagues anyway). Bush has already caught 19 balls on the season, which is better than a lot of receivers. HE still hasn't found the endzone yet, which is disappointing, but Deuce McAlister gets all the goal-line carries, so I didn't have any big expectations for TDs anyways. Willie Parker is on bye this week so I don't have to face the tough decision of who to play in the swing position this week. So for RBs I got Bush and Tomlinson in and Lamont Jordan, the biggest bust of 2006, out. Nothing else you can really say about how bnad the Raiderss offensive line and team are this year.

...Wide Receivers...

T.J. Houshmandzadah had a huge season debut against the Steelers catching touchdowns on two consecutive possessions for the Bengals, and finished with with 9 catches for 94 yards. He is listed on the injury report as probable this week, but he has been practicing, and there is no way he won't be on the field against the Patriots. With Chad Jonhson getting all the attention, he should have another big day against that horrible Patriots' secondary. Darrell Jackson is continuing to perform at a high level, and his knee injury hasn't been a problem. With Deion Branch being phased into the offense gradually, Jackson is still going ot be picking up big numbers every week, especially now that Shaun Alexander is out and the Seahawks will be be more passing-oriented. Chris Chambers has been a big disappointment, but I think the problem rests more with Daunte Culpepper. Culpepper has been playing porrly, and he it looks like he won't be at 100% for much of this season. Tearing all three knee ligaments is a very tough injury to come back from, especially for a QB that has always relied on his mobility to get out of trouble. Donald Driver is putting up great yardage, but his touchdown productoin has not been ideal, but I think it will pick up, because Greg Jennings is establishing himself as a major scoring threat, and defenses will have to respect him as well. So Chambers, Driver, and Jackson in at receiver with Housh in the swing for this week.

....The rest...

My opponent this week is employing a strange strategy, playing both Joseph Addai and Dominick Rhodes. Although he is insuring himself at least a touchdown or two, and decent yardage, he is severly limiting his potential for points playing two backs on the same team, putting all eggs in one basket. He boasts great receivers in Santana Moss, Chad Jonhson, and Marvin Harrison, but with weak QBs in Philip Rivers and Chad Pennington, it will allow me to pick up another victory and move to 4-0, though it may be somewhat close, well Yahoo! has me projected for a 220 to 161 victory...

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

View from the Stands and other Week 3 Thoughts

I made the pilgrimage to Monster Park in San Francisco for the "showdown" between the 49ers and the Eagles. On paper the game was a total mismatch, but the 49ers had showed their improvement on defense and offense in the first two weeks against the Cardinals and in a win over the Rams(it should be noted that the 49ers finished last in the league in both offense and defense, so an improvement from these numbers is not necessarily indicative of success).

Regardless, the 49ers did have a small chance to win the game, they were playing at home after all, and the "Faithful" as the fans are now referred to, were all out in force....

But when the 49ers kicked the opening kickoff out of bounds, it was a sign of things to come. The Eagles ran a flea-flicker on their first play, and Donovan McNabb connected with Reggie Brown for a 50-yard gain. A couple plays later Bryan Westbrook scored on a shovel pass, and the Eagles would continue their dominance for the rest of the game(except for the third quarter, but they were already up by 4 touchdowns at that point).

How the Eagles were able to dominate is no real mystery. Their play-calling was far superior to the 49ers, well that and they have a veteran quarterback who knows the offense in and out, and Alex Smith is still learning how to take snaps from under center(he ran the spread option in college). Anyway the main difference in play-calling was that the Eagles made a concerted effort to get the ball to their playmakers in open space on high-percentage/low-risk pass plays, often on first down. The Eagles also mixed in creative play-calls near the goal line and on the first offensive play of the game, an Andy Reid trademark.

The 49ers on the other hand predictably ran the ball on early downs and attempted intermediate passes on third down. The Eagles were ready for this elementary approach, and they stuffed the run, and brought pressure on third downs. The result was zero first downs in the first quarter and falling behind 24-3 at halftime.

The Eagles are often criticized for passing too much, because in a simple examination of the box score, they pass anywhere from 55 to 70 percent of the time. But, what the box score doesn't show is how quickly many of the passes are thrown. The Eagles run several designed quick screens to running backs, tight ends, and wideouts that are often short gains, like most running plays, but have a better chance of breaking for a big gain. The reason is the rush is keyed on getting to the quarterback, and the receiver has much more space to maneuver.

Once a player like Westbrook gets in open space, he's tough to tackle. This is why the Eagles signed him to a big contract last year, because he is such a perfect fit for their offense. They don't need him to run the ball 25 times. They want to maximize his speed and agility in the open field as a receiver. They want him to carry the ball 10-15 times and catch 6-7 passes per game. Here are his stats so far:

15 receptions for 164 yards(10.9 ypc) and 44 carries for 256 yards (5.8) and five total touchdowns. If he continues to put up numbers liek this,

The 49ers have a similar talent in Frank Gore, an explosive runner able to make defenders miss, but they haven't learned to how to best use his talents. Perhaps they picked up a few tricks in their dismantling against the Eagles.....

Other thoughts on week 3....

It was a strange game in Pittsburgh with the Bengals holding on late for a 28-20 victory when Ben Roethlisburger threw his third interception of the game. The game turned on a sequence in the fourth quarter when the Steelers fumbled twice on two consecutive series. T.J. Houshmanzadah scored touchdowns on the ensuing play both times for the Bengals, which proved to be the difference. Pittsburgh(and Rothlisburger especially) has looked pretty sloppy. Roethlisburger has already thrown 5 picks and is not playing with the confidence that he showed last year leading the Steelers to the Super Bowl. Most of his troubles can be attributed to his motorcycle accident and his appendectomy, because he at times appears afraid to take hits. His arm strength is also lacking, as evidenced by one throw against Cincy where he strided so hard throwing a deep ball that he fell down(the ball was intercepted, and not coincidentally was 10 yards shy of its intended target). He should be back to his old self in a couple weeks after the scars are fully healed, but he better step it up if Pittsburgh (1-2) is going to keep pace with Cincy and Baltimore, who are both 3-0.

There's nothing else I can really add to the beatdown that the Saints put on the Falcons, as there is already been so much written and said already. I figured the Saints might make it competitive, but that ultimately they wouldn't be able to stop Michael Vick. I couldn't have been more wrong. Vick seemed to be trying to prove his growth as a pocket passer, passing up open running lanes, and instead trying to move the ball with his arm. It didn't help that New Orleans' defense totally shutdown Warrick Dunn, who had been leading the league in rushing going into the game, but finished with only 44 yards on 13 carries. If the Saints can maintain this kind of defensive effort, they will definitely make the playoffs, but that is a very big IF..

The NFL Replay on the NFL network has to be one of the greatest ideas ever. The package compacts a full game into an hour and half, cutting out most inconsequential plays, and also includes quotes from players and coaches that accompany the action. It's a great way to get caught up on the best games of the week that you missed because you don't live in a given area. I don't work for the NFL network or anything, I guess I have seen the commercial advertising the NFL replay so many times, I have been brainwashed into promoting it...

The NFC looks to be catching up the AFC so far this season. So far the NFC is 4-3, although 2 of those wins are against the hapless Texans. Nonetheless the number of good NFC teams is increasing, with the Vikings, Bears, Cowboys, Eagles, Saints, and Falcons all looking impressive. Also, the three worst teams in the league are all in the AFC, the Titans, Texans, and Raiders. These teams are already locked in a battle to see who gets the first pick in the 2007 draft. The Raiders look to have the edge, as they haven't bothered to show up yet this year. An argument could be made to include the Lions in this group, and I definitely see the merit, but I think they are slighly above these three for now. I see some potential in their offense, and the defense did shutdown Seattle in that first game....

Saturday, September 23, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 3

Week 3 should again be an easy victory for me, as my opponent as several players out of the lineup with byes. I also finally get T.J. Houshmanzadah back, as he practiced on Friday and was upgraded to probable. This will help me overcome the loss of Ladanian Tomlinson(off with bye), as I can throw Reggie Bush in at RB, and put Housh in the WR/RB slot, with Darrell Jackson keeping his spot, thanks to a strong game in week 2. I have several favorable matchups in week 3 against bad defenses that I will break down by position...

....Quarterbacks....

Michael Vick is going up against a weak New Orleans defense on Monday night that will have no chance of stopping Vick when Atlanta employs the spread option they did in week 2. Vick had 126 yards rushing against Tampa Bay, and looked unstoppable. Something tells me New Orleans won't fare any better than Tampa Bay, who has one of the fastest defenses in the league. Although I'm glad Vick is putting up big numbers, it does worry me he is going to take a lot of big hits running so often. As for McNabb, another 300 yard and multiple TD performance is very likely this week in San Francisco. San Francisco did look impressive in week 2 against the Rams, but the Rams never pass anymore, so to me that was no surprise.

......Running Backs.....

Reggie Bush continues to impress every week. He rushed for only 5 yards in week 2, but he caught 8 passes for 68 yards and had 36 return yards, which is a very solid effort in PPR leagues. The Saints will continue using him in this pass-catching role, so he is a must-play in PPR leagues like mine. He will finally score a TD against Atlanta on Monday, so bank on that. I'm rolling with Willie Parker again this week after a horrible showing against Jacksonville. Pittsburgh was totally shutdown, and will be fired up to prove themselves against Cincinnati. Cincy's run defense is so-so, so a 100-yard game and a touchdown are likely for Parker.

.....Wide Receivers.....

Donald Driver is continuing to put up big numbers, although he has yet to catch a touchdown pass. I knew coming in his value would be in the number of catches he got, and he hasn't disappointed, catching 15 balls for 249 yards. Housh will make first start of the season now that he is finally healthy, and I will use him in the swing spot, although I don't think he will have a huge game against Pittsburgh. Chris Chambers broke out in week 2, although it should be noted his touchdown came in garbage time, but maybe that's a good sign. Darrell Jackson may see reduced looks with Deion Branch entering the fray, but he still is Matt Hasselback's go to guy. L.J. Smith is probable with a shoulder injury, but is quietly one of the most productive tight ends in the league with 13 catches in two weeks. He should find paydirt against San Fran on Sunday.

....the rest.....

When it comes to defense and kickers, I just throw in whoever has the most points. I picked my two kickers after everyone else, and they have both been pretty consistent, so there's a tip for next year. Never draft one of the top-rated kickers, because it really is just a crapshoot. Anyway best of luck to everyone in week 3. My Yahoo! projected score is 200-132, so I won't be sweating it out...

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

"A Devastating Loss" and Other Week 2 Reactions

The best game of the year took place in week 2, as the New York Giants visited Philaldelphia for a division showdown, one of 11 such matchups. The Eagles came out on fire, eager to put last season's divisional 0-6 record behind them. They were truly dominant for three quarters, getting consistent pressure on the quarterback, shutting down the run, and racking up over 350 yards on offense.

Leading 24-7 as the fourth quarter started, the Giants looked to have no chance. But things can change quickly in the NFL, and thanks to a few lucky bounces of the ball(the Eagles' inability to recover a fumble near its own goal line, and a subsequent Bryan Westbrook fumble), the Giants climbed back into the game.

It's amazing how a team can be ineffective for an entire game, then go to a no-huddle offense late in the game and the offense appears to be unstoppable. And although the Eagles did become more conservative with their big lead, as most teams are, the Eagles continued to blitz Manning, but they weren't able to get as much pressure with their defensive line, which had been the key for the first three quarters. As Manning easily moved the Giants down the field for two touchdowns and a field goal in the fourth quarter, the Eagles were blitzing with defensive backs and linebackers, but Manning was finding the open receivers with relative ease.

When the tying field goal went through the uprights in the final seconds of regulation, I knew the game was over, because the Giants had all the momentum. Sure enough, the Eagles couldn't do anything on offense in overtime, gaining almost no yards. It's difficult for a team to "turn the switch back to on" as the Eagles had only picked up a couple of first downs in the fourth quarter, choosing a conservative run-oriented attack that wasn't very effective.

Anyway, it was over before the OT coin flip, and I'm sure everyone has seen the game-winning touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress hundreds of times so there is no need to rehash that. The bottom line is the Eagles suffered a devastating loss at home, when they had it all but locked up a 2-0 record and seemingly re-established their NFC East dominance. But, now the Eagles need to regroup, and if they can't beat the Cowboys in Philly(on October 8), their season is pretty much over, considering their horrible back-to-back-to-back road trip through the NFC East the last month of the season.

Other thoughts on week 2....

The Falcons look like the class of the NFC right now. Last year their run defense was atrocious, but this year they have allowed only 105 yards total in their first two games. Even with Vick throwing for 92 yards against Tampa Bay, they are dominating their opponents. Vick is running a scaled-back version of the option and it is working very effectively, the only question is if and when is going to get injured. As long as he can get out of bounds frequently, he will continue to rack up big rushing numbers.

The two primetime games in week 2 were almost unwatchable. Defensive struggles are not entertaining, other than the occasional big hit. The Jacksonville-Pittsburgh game was pathetic, with both teams playing it conservative the whole game, until the Jags decided to try passing on first and second down in the third quarter. As for the Redskins-Cowboys, any game involving the Redskins this year apparently is going to be a bore. They were on Monday Night Football in week 1, and showed no signs of having the explosive offense they are supposed to have this year with the addition of new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, although Clinton Portis' return in week 3 should help. Other than one or two big plays by the Cowboys and Terrell Owens getting injured, there was nothing to get excited about or keep people on the East Coast awake.

The Chargers and the Ravens both look pretty damn good after two weeks, but neither team has played anyone, so don't pencil them in the AFC Championship game just yet. Both teams have showcased outstanding defenses and adequate offenses, but Steve McNair is old and frail and Phillip Rivers is young and inexperienced. Neither team will be tested in week 3 with the Chargers off and the Ravens going to Cleveland, so we'll have to wait and see.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 2

Week 1 was an easy victory as I predicted, but despite correctly predicting big weeks from several players, I made key mistakes that may have cost me in other weeks. But first I'll take a look at what I got right...

Donovan McNabb had a big week agaisnt the Texans, which was no surprise, but Michael Vick put up some big numbers(my prediction was 150 yards passing, 2 TDs, 50 yards rushing; he ended up with 140 yards passing, 2 TDs, 48 yards rushing) against a stout Carolina defense, although it should be noted that Carolina was missing MLB Dan Morgan.

Playing Reggie Bush in week 1 worked out well with the Saints following my advice and getting Bush involved in the passing game early and using him on punt returns, as Bush showed why he should have been the number one pick overall. Lamont Jordan was a big disappointment against the Chargers picking up only 20 yards on 10 carries, but it's not his fault there wasn't any room to run and that Oakland was going up against the league's best run defense. Going in I figured he would at least pick up a garbage-time touchdown, but the Raiders were beaten so soundly that he was pulled late in the game. This also hurt LT's overall numbers, because the game was such a blowout, he had only one touchdown.

It turned out I should have gone with Darrell Jackson instead of Lee Evans in week1 , but Jackson was supposed to be restricted to only 15 plays, and he ended up playing for most of the game. Evans, on the other hand, well he is a Buffalo Bill, and there's no telling when they will have a passing game again. How embarrasing to lose a game on a safety! My other wideouts did OK, with Donald Driver racking up sosme garbage-time receptions for some extra cushioning, although I really need Houshmanzadeh back for week 2...

As for IDP, I left Mike Peterson out, who was questionable , and he ended up with 18 points( my other DLs had either 10 or 9). The guys that are questionable are always the toughest decisions, but my method is to usually play the guys that are able to practice(eve on a limited basis), and if a guy is downgraded late in the week, not to play him.

Now here's my plan for week 2..

....Quarterbacks.....

McNabb and Vick are no brainers this week but I 'm not expecting a combined 48 points liek they provided in week 1. They are going up against tough defense (Giants and Tampa Bay, respectively, but both will be playing their first home game of the season, which means they likely won't disappoint. The Eagles are going to continue their emphasis on the run game, so 250 yards 2 TDs and an interception are reasonable expectations for McNabb. Vick will be good for a touchdown and 200 total yards again, but will turn it over a couple times this week

....Running Backs.....

I have a really tough decision this week at running back with Lamont Jordan and the pathetic Raiders offense going on the road to Baltimore and their vaunted defense. I generally don't bench my top players just because they are going against a top defense(like when I left Jordan in week 1 against San Diego, which was a horrible decision), but the Raiders showed me so little in week 1 that I can't play Jordan unless the matchup is favorable(assuming I have a better option) Instead I will insert Wille Parker into the lineup, who ran hard in week 1 and is going up against a tough Jacksonville rush defense that will be missing a few key starters (and maybe Mike Peterson, but I can't worry about conflicts of interest on my own team too much). Parker showed that is going to be part of the passing game and the one and only option at running back, so I would give the green light to start him at will. I can't put Reggie Bush on the bench after he did so well in week 1, so he's in again.

....Wide Receivers.....

Driver is going to be s starter every week, because the Packers will always be losing, and he will be constantly racking up catches, yards, and touchdowns when the other team's second string defense is on teh field. Chambers was targeted 13 times in week 1, so I am not too concerend with his 5 catches. I really really want to have Housh availbe in week 2, but he STILL has not practiced this week. These are the worst decisions to make, because now he is probable. I am not really sure how he got upgraded without even practicing at all, but I currently have him penciled in. He's such a good redzone threat, I would rather risk getting 0 than playing Lee Evans and getting only 2 points! And Darrell Jackson will get even less looks now that Deion Branch is in the fold. I was rooting against his trade to the Seahawks os much just so that I could have Jackson stowed away on my bench as a capable fourth receiver. Damn!

Update: I will now place Housh on the bench, as he wasn't able to practice all week and was downgraded to questionable. DO NOT PLAY HOUSHMANDZADEH IN WEEK 2!

The complete matchup is listed below...

Yahoo! has me projected for another easy 20 point victory, and I couldn't agree more..

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Week 1 Reactions and Observations

Michael Vick proved again that he doesn't need to complete a high percentage of passes to beat an elite defense (10-22, 140 yards). As long as he has room to run, the Falcons will be a tough team to beat. What was even more suprising was how bad they made the Panthers' offense look(although i t must be pointed ut that the Panthers were playing without their primary offensive weapon from 2005, Steve Smith). The Falcons had four sacks and shut down Carolina completely. The acquisitions of John Abraham and Lawyer Milloy have shored up a defense that was horrible against the run in 2005.

Donovan McNabb showed that he is healthy and back to his old self with three touchdowns and 312 yards, although the Texans are not a good measuring stick. The Eagles also showed a more balanced attack, running the ball 30 times(for 130 yards) and passing 36(for 312 yards) times. If the Eagles continue to run the ball effectively and stretch the opposing defense with deep balls to newly acquired Donte Stallworth, the Eagles will continue to roll up easy wins, although the competition gets tougher in week 2 with a home matchup against the Giants. Don't look now, but the Eagles are the only NFC East team that escaped week 1 with a win..

I wish ESPN and the NFL Network would stop showing Trent Green's head bounce off the turf over and over in slow motion. He is lucky that the injury wasn't a lot worse, although "severe head trauma" doesn't sound too minor. I think Trent Green is going to miss a lot more than the projected 2 games that is being reported.

After being picked by several commentators to make the Super Bowl, the Cowboys flopped in week 1. TO did have a good game (at least in terms of overall numbers, 6 catches, 80 yards, TD), but he disappeared for much of the second half, when the Jaguars took charge. Drew Bledsoe looked terrible, showing once again he can't handle consistent defensive pressure. The Cowboys need to get him time to throw the ball, or TO is going to blow up soon as the losses pile up.

Lastly, if I have learned anything from previous week 1 openers, it's that we can't jump to conclusions based on one game. So just because Chad Pennington had a good game against a horrible Titans team or Steve McNair helped lead Baltimore to a shutout of Tampa Bay on the road, it was only one game, and not necessarily the begging of a new trend. Both players will surely get injured as they always do, putting both their teams in a precarious position.

Thursday, September 07, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 1

Well here we are at week 1 already. I thought would share my lineup and give some reasoning and reccomendations for the lineup I am using for week 1, and maybe along the way you can extract some useful nuggets of information. The league I am in is a PPR league, or points per reception, which makes it different from most fantasy leagues. Players that catch a lot of passes become extremely valuable, and receivers become much more important.

In most leagues, receivers are a crapshoot, even with the best receivers. Torri Holt and Marvin Harrison will have 50 yards receiving and no touchdowns one week, then blow up the next. But in PPR leagues, there is a lot of value in guys like Donald Driver, who you can almost always count for 100 receptions a season, but who would normally get overlooked because the Packers are a disaster. Also running backs that catch the ball a lot out of the backfield are extremley valuable, which is why I snagged Ladanian Tomlinson and Lamont Jordan. In my opinion, LT is the number one overall player in PPR leagues, but I was miraculously able to grab in the fourth position, due to the incompetence of my fellow league participants.

....Running backs...

I decided to leave Willie Parker and Reuben Droughns on the bench this week, instead going with Reggie Bush at the W/R swing position and Lamont Jordan and LT((both no-brainer week 1 starts) as my RBs. Miami has a stout run defense, and without Roethlisburger, the Steelers are going to play really conservative, which means a lot of carries for Parker, but not many yards, because Miami knows this is the plan as well. Parker may have a touchdown and decent yards(75), but he doesn't typically catch many passes. I am rolling the dice with Reggie Bush in week 1. The Saints will be platooning him with Deuce McAlister, but will look to get him involved in the passing game early, and he may even pick up some points on punt return. Cleveland has a solid defense, but I can see Bush easily rushing for 50 yards, catching 5 passes for 60 yards, and getting 30 yards on punt return. There's also the thrill of throwing him in there in week 1.

...Wide Receivers....

I was able to snag Darrell Jackson off waivers last week, and I will stow him on the bench for now, and wait to make sure he is healthy before I throw him in. I have a lot of depth at wide receiver with Chris Chambers and Donald Driver as my top 2. I thought T.J. Houshmandzadeh was a steal as a number three receiver, but he is questionable for week 1, so I will likely go with Lee Evans this week. Housh is obviously a much better player and if he starts, will rack up more points than Evans. But I want to make sure I don't get 0 points in the WR position. I don't think Housh will suit up in week 1 because he was downgraded to questionable on Thursday, but I'll be watching closely.

....Quarterbacks...

Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick is a nice combo at quarterback and I am excited about the possibilities. Vick never puts up many passing yards, but he always finds a way to move the chains and lead his team to scores. And when the Falcons get inside the 5-yard line, there is no QB I would rather have than Vick, because the play-action is almost unstopable with him, especially when Warrick Dunn is running the ball effectively. Now Vick has historically faired poorly against Carolina, but it is week 1, and teams typically aren't crisp in their tackling in the first week of the season, so I think he will accumulate two TDs this week, with 50 yards rushing and 150 passing. McNabb on the other hand will have a field day against Houston. Hopefully the Eagles don't show too much balance, and McNabb is able to pick up all the TDs, and not Bryan Westbrook and Corell Buckhalter.

.......the rest...

Kickers and defense don't require too much thought, so I won't waste my or your time.
As for my matchup this week, the Yahoo! predictions obviously favor me. My opponent is not particularly deep at any position, except running back, but Clinton Portis will be limited with his shoulder injury. And Stephen Jackson is going against the one of the toughest run defenses in the league(Denver), so I am confident he won't have a big day. He is not much of a receiver out of the backfield, so he's not a high scoring player.

Check back on Sunday night to see my reflections on the week. Feel free to email me at steve(at)ionmail(dot)com to give me feedback. Good luck...and to those of you that made the free $1100 bet with Mansion.com this week, GO STEELERS!!!

Week 1 Projected Stats(As calculated by Yahoo!)

QB
D. McNabb (Phi - QB) @Hou 21.68
Mi. Vick (Atl - QB) @Car 12.74

WR
C. Chambers (Mia - WR) @Pit 10.11
D. Driver (GB - WR) Chi 8.20
L. Evans (Buf - WR) @NE 6.31

RB
L. Tomlinson (SD - RB) @Oak 18.66
L. Jordan (Oak - RB) SD 12.86

TE
L. Smith (Phi - TE) @Hou 7.97

W/R
R. Bush (NO - RB) @Cle 10.91

K
M. Stover (Bal - K) @TB 10.51
R. Lindell (Buf - K) @NE 8.10

D
K. Mitchell (KC - DL) Cin 9.14

DB
G. Wilson (NYG – DB) Ind 11.12

DB
K. Rhodes (NYJ - DB) @Ten 11.32

DL
L. Tatupu (Sea - DL) @Det 11.63

DL
C. June (Ind - DL) @NYG 12.35

Total 183.61


QB
M. Bulger (StL - QB) Den 16.58
B. Favre (GB - QB) Chi 9.12

WR
H. Ward (Pit - WR) Mia 11.45
A. Johnson (Hou - WR) Phi 10.69
A. Lelie (Atl - WR) @Car 4.50

RB
R. Johnson (Cin - RB) @KC 11.65
S. Jackson (StL - RB) Den 10.88

TE B. Watson (NE - TE) 3.88

W/R Ma. Clayton (Bal - WR) @TB 6.07

K
A. Vinatieri (Ind - K) @NYG 8.75
J. Elam (Den - K) @StL 9.44

D
De. Smith (SF - DL) @Ari 10.19

DB
N. Clements (Buf - DB) @NE 10.65

DB
C. Gamble (Car - DB) Atl 10.35

DL
K. Morrison (Oak - DL) SD 11.63

DL
M. Strahan (NYG - DL) Ind 8.38

Total 154.21


Matchup: 183.61 - 154.21

A nice easy win for week 1(on paper)

Sunday, August 27, 2006

2006 Preview: NFC EAST

In most circles, the Philadelphia Eagles are being picked to finish fourth in the NFC East, with the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins fighting it out for first. The division is commonly regarded as the most difficult in the league, with potentially three playoff teams. The Cowboys have looked great on offense and defense in the preseason, even with all the TO nonsense looming as a distraction. The Redskins return a talented defense from 2005, and a solid offense with the additions of wide receivers Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd to complement Santana Moss and Clinton Portis. The Giants also will be strong again with a maturing Eli Manning and 31-year old running back Tiki Barber, who is looking to have one more monster season before he likely retires after the season is over.

The schedule makers certainly didn't do the Eagles any favors this year, despite a last place finish in the division in 2005(6-10, 0-6). They have the second most difficult schedule(based on 2005 records) in the division, including a brutal stretch in December when they face all three of their division opponents on the road in consecutive weeks. However the Eagles could easily get out to a 7-1 or 6-2 start with early matchups against the Texans, Saints, 49ers, and Packers. McNabb has looked great in the preseason, and he is out to prove that 2005 was a fluke and that he can lead a team to the playoffs without a marquee receiver. The Eagles built some momemntum last year by attempting to establish the run after McNabb got hurt and TO flamed out, so look for a much more balance offense in Philadelphia. Don't be surprised if the Eagles are near the top of the division for much of the season, and then fall out of the playoff race amid their horrendous road trip through Dallas, Washington, and New York.

The Giants have the second toughest schedule in the NFL, and a rough start to the season, with a Manning showdown in week 1 and early road dates in Seattle, Washington, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. But the Giants have great balance on offense (6th in the NFL in rushing and 11th in the NFL in passing in 2005), and will likely hover around .500 for much of the season. If Eli Manning can cut down on his interceptions(he threw 17 interceptions in 2005) and become a more accurate pass, the Giants have a shot at taking the division at 9-7 or 10-6. But Eli will continue to make poor decisions at key times in 2006, and the Giants will miss out on the playoffs. Manning had a completion percentage of 52.8 in 2005. I just don't see his accuracy improving in 2005. Most quarterbacks have a difficult time improving their accuracy as their careers go on, and Manning is no exception.