Friday, September 16, 2005

Week 2 Predictions

This week's game of the week is a Super Bowl rematch from 2 years ago, the Patriots and the Panthers. That game, arguably one of the most competitive and entertaining Super Bowls ever, was won by a Adam Vinateri field goal. It'd be easy to say that's how this one is going to end up, but I'm taking the Panthers in this one. The Patriots take an early loss as they struggle to get their run game going and Julius Peppers terrorizes Tom Brady.

Daunte Culpepper tries to wake up from his week 1 nightmare against the Bengals in Cincinnati. The Bengals' D is much improved, and is just enough to stifle the Vikings. Carson Palmer has a big game against a Vikings defense that is not as good as everything thinks, and the Bengals move to 2-0 for the first time anyone can remember.

Peyton Manning faces off with Byron Leftwich in Indianapolis. Last year the Jags were the only team to defeat the Colts in Indy, but it won't happen again this year. The Colts win this one in a shootout, and everyone stops talking about how much improved their defense is and focuses again on how good Manning is.

Pittsburgh is on the road this week for a tough matchup against the upstart Texans, well not exactly. The Texans looked miserable against Buffalo last week, and things only get worse for them this week against the Steelers. The one positive from this game is Dominick Davis picks up a late TD when the game is already over, keeping all those fantasy teams' hopes alive that took them with their first pick in the draft (myself included).

Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens send the 49ers back to .500, but the game is a lot closer than everyone thinks. What I mean is the final score is a lot closer, as the 49ers score two meaningless touchdowns in the 4th quarter and to make the score seem a lot closer. The Eagles get their offense going against a 49ers' D that takes a step back in week 2.

Buffalo and Tampa Bay do their best impersonation of Chicago and Washington's 9-7 thriller from week 1. The difference in the game is McGahee's ability to gain yards without much to work with, and Cadillac's failure to do so. Buffalo builds on last year's hot finish with a 2-0 start.

Baltimore is favored by 7 on the road at Tennessee. My question is who is going to score that touchdown for the Ravens? Ray Lewis or Ed Reed? After watching the Ravens shoot a blank against the Colts last week, it's obvious this offense is not any good. But then again, the Titans didn't show us much of anything against the Steelers in week 1. The Ravens win in a defensive struggle, with Ed Reed bringing a pick to the house for the decisive TD.

Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Pistol's Fantasy Football Week 1 Rant

Having no job and very little to do, I took it upon myself to assemble 30 fantasy football teams for the upcoming season. It's a formidable task to monitor and keep up with 30 different teams, but I have been able to manage so far. It only takes me about three hours to set the line-up for 15 of the teams. In one league, I am the "commish." Since it's on yahoo, there really is very little responsibility involved with being "commish." I don't have to organize anything or inform people of pending deadlines. Yahoo takes care of everything for me. I just like the fact that I can call myself the "commish". That's pretty much the best part.

I also have my “main” league, which is the only one that actually takes place in real life, as opposed to being on the internet. Everyone has to pay $50 to enter, but it's not to pay for a prize or anything like that. We meet twice during the season at a restaurant for the draft and the supplemental draft. In other words we pay $50 for the food we eat during our drafts. Most "real" leagues you pay to enter then bet money on each game every week. It just becomes another form of gambling. But this league is more "pure", well as "pure" as fantasy football can be I guess.

Then I have 28 public leagues through Yahoo. I started early in the Summer doing drafts, and before I knew I had 28 teams. Nothing beats the thrill of a fantasy draft. By the time I made it to my 28th draft, I could pretty much predict where every player was going to be drafted, well except for the asshole that drafted Alex Smith with the 1st pick overall, thinking maybe being the 1st pick in the real draft means something in fantasy football.

I picked Daunte Culpepper in about all of my public leagues with my 1st pick. Some people were down on him without Randy Moss, but I had a feeling he was going to have a big year. I guess there is nowhere but up to go for him after a disastrous first week. I got annihilated. I managed to win a third of them by dumb luck and easy match-ups and was more than happy with this outcome. On one team I play no tight end, because I have so many solid players and happened to win this week even with Culpepper at the helm.

But, what really pisses me off about public leagues is that two teams that clearly know each other made a ridiculous trade, one of them giving up Peyton Manning and Steven Jackson for absolute garbage. Now the team that traded Peyton is starting Kurt Warner. That's a real upgrade.

Then there are the leagues where a team makes no roster changes the whole season. I'm playing three teams this week alone that are still starting Jevon Walker, who is out for the season. What's the point of even doing a fantasy draft if you're never going to do anything with your team? And how the hell do I still end up losing to a team that is starting Jerry Rice at wide receiver?

However, for the most part public leagues are a good solid way to waste a few hours a week. In a few of my leagues people dropped Brett Favre and Trent Green, after one bad game. Both these QBs are top QBs in just about any fantasy expert's board. It amazes me that people care so little or are just that stupid, but I’m happy to pick these guys off waivers and trade them to these idiots later on in the year.

In the league I’m the commish I played Steve in the first week and beat him until he was purple. If he had combined the points of the 5 players he had on his bench with the rest of his team, I still would have won by 10 points. I proceeded to tell the league that he picked shit for qb’s and needed to get off the can the following week in my weekly breakdown of the league's matchups, my only real duty.

In my main league the results are not still posted yet (its Wednesday) because the commish doesn’t know how to work a computer. I told him I’d put the league on yahoo for free, but he's trying to keep things the same way they have always been, which gives you a clear indication of how old he is, and also probably the way he votes.

That's it for this week.

Written by Peter Moulton
Edited by Steve McFadden

Monday, September 12, 2005

Week 1 Roundup

Week 1 of the NFL season has come and gone, and there was a number of shocking upsets. In a week that ended the same way last season ended (a dominating performance by the Patriots and a frustrating loss for the Eagles), the 49ers, Dolphins, and Cowboys all managed to pull of upsets. These three teams, arguably three of the worst teams from last year, that pulled off surprising victories.

The most shocking game of course being Miami's total domination of Denver, 34-10. Miami looks like a new team this year, even with "old" Gus Frerotte at the helm. Denver looks like it's regretting committing so much of its financial resources to Jake Plummer. Plummer couldn't complete any passes until the game was over, ending up with average fantasy stats at the end thanks to a late meaningless TD.

How did Mike Martz's Rams lose to the 49ers? Well apparently Martz gave his Defensive Coordinator the day off, because the 49ers scored 3 TDs in the 1st half! 2 questions: 1. Did the 49ers even score 3 TDs last season? 2. Why do the Rams not run the ball with Steven Jackson more often? The Rams came back from 3 TDs against Seattle last season, but they couldn't come back against the 49ers, losing 28-25! As good as the Rams offense is with Martz, he won't survive much longer with this team if they lose games like this.

Bill Parcells unfroze Drew Bledsoe just in time for him to throw 3 TDs against San Diego in a 28-24 victory. San Diego missed Antonio Gates dearly down the stretch, as Drew Brees couldn't connect with any of his receivers on 4 passes into the endzone. Gates will be back for Week 2. Let's not be to quick to say the Cowboys are back, but even Keyshawn looked good for the 'Boys

Caught up in all these upsets was New Orleans shocking victory in Carolina. America's new team showed heart, as Aaron Brooks brought the Saints down in the field in the final minute and John Carney kicked the go-ahead field goal for the 23-20 victory, defeating everyone's favorite sleeper to knock off the Eagles this year.

Daunte Culpepper fell flat on his face against Tampa Bay in his debut without Randy Moss. He spent most of the game dumping the ball to the tight end or running back on screens, lacking confidence in his receivers. Tampa Bay's D swarmed him throughout, forcing 3 interceptions and recovering 2 fumbles.

Meanwhile on Thursday night Randy Moss put on quite the show in New England, catching a 77-yard bomb for a TD, looking like he might be able to turn the Raiders into a playoff team. Yes I said maybe, and not definitely. They still have Kerry Collins at QB.

Carson Palmer looks like he's the real deal this year, leading the Bengals to an impressive victory over the Browns, 27-13. Well I guess any victory over the Browns isn't impressive, especially with Trent Dilfer at QB. But Palmer completed 26 of 34 passes for 280 yards and 2 TDs (and a pick), with Rudi Johnson going well over 100 yards. The Bengals look like they might finally finally make it back to the postseason. Then again, it's only week 1, and it was the Browns. The same team that almost single-handedly let Jamal Lewis set the rushing record 3 years ago.

Moving on, Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson gave the JETS fits in KC, combining for 3 TDs and almost 200 yards. Johnson was more impressive, gaining 110 yards on 9 carries. With an actual defense this year, the Chiefs seem poised to re-enter the playoffs after dismantling the JETS, 27-7. Chad Pennington looked like his shoulder still isn't healed from last year, and may never be, and Curtis Martin looked like last year was his last stand.

Ben Roethlisberger showed us why the preseason is meaningless, throwing for 218 yards and 2 TDs. Either that or the Titans are even worse than we thought, losing to the Steelers 34-7.

In a game that "bears" no description, the Redskins defeated Chicago 9-7.

In another offensive shootout, the Lions knocked off the Packers 17-3. Favre suddenly looks like an old man, and his best receiver is gone for the year. Things are not going well in what will most likely be his last season. Joey Harrington had a solid game throwing for 2 TDs, but the Packers D is going to be one of the worst units this season. Harrington still has a long way to go before he has "arrived."

David Carr started right where he left off from last season, with another terrible performance, Losman did just enough to lead Buffalo to the 22-7 victory.

Kurt Warner failed in his attempt to prove to the Giants they shouldn't have let him go, as the Giants ran away with their special teams, returning two kicks for TDs, winning 42-19. Eli Manning looks like he has improved, but let's not put him up there with his older brother just yet.

Speaking of which, Peyton carved up the new Ravens 4-6 defense, and Kyle Boller may not be a NFL QB for too much longer, as the Colts won 24-7.

Byron Leftwich put in a strong performance, leading the Jags to an impressive victory against Seattle. Matt Hasselbach got off to a poor start to the 2005 season throwing three picks in a 26-14 loss.

The Monday night game featured a rematch of last year's NFC Championship, the Eagles and the Falcons. Jeremiah Trotter, the heart of the Eagles defense was ejected before kickoff, and the Eagles defense sorely missed his run-stopping presence. Vick and the Falcons rushed for 200 yards, and McNabb had a hard time finding his rhythm against a Falcons unit that pressured him on nearly every pass attempt. McNabb looked afraid to run, trying to prove he can be a pure pocket passer, while his counterpart again showed he is a merely a tailback that completes an occasional pass. But the Falcons got the W, and that's what matters in the NFL

Everyone tends to put much too much stock into the results of the first week of the season. Many players are still getting in shape, and teams are not at their best. Some teams play their best game of the season the 1st week, others their worst. Buffalo beat New England 31-0 on opening day 3 years ago, and didn't do anything the rest of the year. Look for the Dolphins to come back to Earth in week 2. The Eagles are going to take their frustrations on the 49ers next week, so don't count on San Fran pulling off it's second victory of the season. TO will have some special celebrations in store for the game for all 4 of his TDs. I'll say this much. If San Fran wins this game, they are for real. But it's not going to happen.

At the same time, there are many things we can take out of the 1st week. We know the Pats haven't lost a step. We learned that Drew Bledsoe had at least one game left in him. If Bledsoe can continue to play a high level, the Cowboys might prevent the Eagles from clinching the NFC East in Week 14. Then again, the Eagles are the only team without a win in the NFC East. Maybe they fall apart this year. We also know Joe Gibbs still doesn't know what he is doing. Clinton Portis is a small, speedy runner. He's not an old-school 25-30 carry per game kind of back. He will go down this year with an injury if Gibbs continues to run him so much. We also know that Vick will never develop into a passing QB. Jim Mora called more running plays for Vick than pass plays it seemed like. And Vick is not a better passer than when he entered the league 5 years ago. Chances are he will also miss significant time with an injury this season. It's not a question of if, but when.

Lastly, it's great to have the NFL back. Sundays just aren't the same without football. No other sport compares to the drama and intrigue of the NFL. For those of us that work for a living, it gives us an escape from the monotony of our daily routines. For those that don't, well at least you have time to manage as many fantasy football teams as you want.

Be sure to check back for this week's predictions and fantasy update.