Thursday, September 14, 2006

Fantasy Breakdown for Week 2

Week 1 was an easy victory as I predicted, but despite correctly predicting big weeks from several players, I made key mistakes that may have cost me in other weeks. But first I'll take a look at what I got right...

Donovan McNabb had a big week agaisnt the Texans, which was no surprise, but Michael Vick put up some big numbers(my prediction was 150 yards passing, 2 TDs, 50 yards rushing; he ended up with 140 yards passing, 2 TDs, 48 yards rushing) against a stout Carolina defense, although it should be noted that Carolina was missing MLB Dan Morgan.

Playing Reggie Bush in week 1 worked out well with the Saints following my advice and getting Bush involved in the passing game early and using him on punt returns, as Bush showed why he should have been the number one pick overall. Lamont Jordan was a big disappointment against the Chargers picking up only 20 yards on 10 carries, but it's not his fault there wasn't any room to run and that Oakland was going up against the league's best run defense. Going in I figured he would at least pick up a garbage-time touchdown, but the Raiders were beaten so soundly that he was pulled late in the game. This also hurt LT's overall numbers, because the game was such a blowout, he had only one touchdown.

It turned out I should have gone with Darrell Jackson instead of Lee Evans in week1 , but Jackson was supposed to be restricted to only 15 plays, and he ended up playing for most of the game. Evans, on the other hand, well he is a Buffalo Bill, and there's no telling when they will have a passing game again. How embarrasing to lose a game on a safety! My other wideouts did OK, with Donald Driver racking up sosme garbage-time receptions for some extra cushioning, although I really need Houshmanzadeh back for week 2...

As for IDP, I left Mike Peterson out, who was questionable , and he ended up with 18 points( my other DLs had either 10 or 9). The guys that are questionable are always the toughest decisions, but my method is to usually play the guys that are able to practice(eve on a limited basis), and if a guy is downgraded late in the week, not to play him.

Now here's my plan for week 2..

....Quarterbacks.....

McNabb and Vick are no brainers this week but I 'm not expecting a combined 48 points liek they provided in week 1. They are going up against tough defense (Giants and Tampa Bay, respectively, but both will be playing their first home game of the season, which means they likely won't disappoint. The Eagles are going to continue their emphasis on the run game, so 250 yards 2 TDs and an interception are reasonable expectations for McNabb. Vick will be good for a touchdown and 200 total yards again, but will turn it over a couple times this week

....Running Backs.....

I have a really tough decision this week at running back with Lamont Jordan and the pathetic Raiders offense going on the road to Baltimore and their vaunted defense. I generally don't bench my top players just because they are going against a top defense(like when I left Jordan in week 1 against San Diego, which was a horrible decision), but the Raiders showed me so little in week 1 that I can't play Jordan unless the matchup is favorable(assuming I have a better option) Instead I will insert Wille Parker into the lineup, who ran hard in week 1 and is going up against a tough Jacksonville rush defense that will be missing a few key starters (and maybe Mike Peterson, but I can't worry about conflicts of interest on my own team too much). Parker showed that is going to be part of the passing game and the one and only option at running back, so I would give the green light to start him at will. I can't put Reggie Bush on the bench after he did so well in week 1, so he's in again.

....Wide Receivers.....

Driver is going to be s starter every week, because the Packers will always be losing, and he will be constantly racking up catches, yards, and touchdowns when the other team's second string defense is on teh field. Chambers was targeted 13 times in week 1, so I am not too concerend with his 5 catches. I really really want to have Housh availbe in week 2, but he STILL has not practiced this week. These are the worst decisions to make, because now he is probable. I am not really sure how he got upgraded without even practicing at all, but I currently have him penciled in. He's such a good redzone threat, I would rather risk getting 0 than playing Lee Evans and getting only 2 points! And Darrell Jackson will get even less looks now that Deion Branch is in the fold. I was rooting against his trade to the Seahawks os much just so that I could have Jackson stowed away on my bench as a capable fourth receiver. Damn!

Update: I will now place Housh on the bench, as he wasn't able to practice all week and was downgraded to questionable. DO NOT PLAY HOUSHMANDZADEH IN WEEK 2!

The complete matchup is listed below...

Yahoo! has me projected for another easy 20 point victory, and I couldn't agree more..

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Week 1 Reactions and Observations

Michael Vick proved again that he doesn't need to complete a high percentage of passes to beat an elite defense (10-22, 140 yards). As long as he has room to run, the Falcons will be a tough team to beat. What was even more suprising was how bad they made the Panthers' offense look(although i t must be pointed ut that the Panthers were playing without their primary offensive weapon from 2005, Steve Smith). The Falcons had four sacks and shut down Carolina completely. The acquisitions of John Abraham and Lawyer Milloy have shored up a defense that was horrible against the run in 2005.

Donovan McNabb showed that he is healthy and back to his old self with three touchdowns and 312 yards, although the Texans are not a good measuring stick. The Eagles also showed a more balanced attack, running the ball 30 times(for 130 yards) and passing 36(for 312 yards) times. If the Eagles continue to run the ball effectively and stretch the opposing defense with deep balls to newly acquired Donte Stallworth, the Eagles will continue to roll up easy wins, although the competition gets tougher in week 2 with a home matchup against the Giants. Don't look now, but the Eagles are the only NFC East team that escaped week 1 with a win..

I wish ESPN and the NFL Network would stop showing Trent Green's head bounce off the turf over and over in slow motion. He is lucky that the injury wasn't a lot worse, although "severe head trauma" doesn't sound too minor. I think Trent Green is going to miss a lot more than the projected 2 games that is being reported.

After being picked by several commentators to make the Super Bowl, the Cowboys flopped in week 1. TO did have a good game (at least in terms of overall numbers, 6 catches, 80 yards, TD), but he disappeared for much of the second half, when the Jaguars took charge. Drew Bledsoe looked terrible, showing once again he can't handle consistent defensive pressure. The Cowboys need to get him time to throw the ball, or TO is going to blow up soon as the losses pile up.

Lastly, if I have learned anything from previous week 1 openers, it's that we can't jump to conclusions based on one game. So just because Chad Pennington had a good game against a horrible Titans team or Steve McNair helped lead Baltimore to a shutout of Tampa Bay on the road, it was only one game, and not necessarily the begging of a new trend. Both players will surely get injured as they always do, putting both their teams in a precarious position.