Saturday, September 24, 2005

A Glance at Week 3

Randy Moss versus Terrell Owens. Tom Brady versus Ben Roethlisburger. Eli Manning versus the San Diego fans. These are the 3 best matchups of the week. Let's start in Philly.

The hype for the Oakland and Philadelphia matchup is all about Moss and Owens. But the real difference in this game will be defense. The Eagles have one of the best defenses in the league, and with Jeremiah Trotter back in week 2, their defense was dominant. Granted it was the 49ers, but they still allowed only 3 points, and didn't even allow any garbage points in the 4th quarter. With Trotter stuffing the run, the Eagles would have handled the Falcons in week 1. Without him, they still nearly won, even with McNabb hurting and the offense struggling.

Moss will still have a big game against the Philly D, posting 150 yards and 2 scores, about the same numbers as his counterpart TO will have. The only difference will be TO's numbers will come in the first half, and Moss' will come in the final quarter, when the Eagles already have an insurmountable lead. Lamont Jordan won't be able to get much on the ground, and the Raiders will be forced to rely on the pass, playing right into the Eagles blitz crazy defense. Eagles win 37-21.

The Panthers didn't exactly blow the Patriots away with their offense in week 2, but their defense shut down the Patriots' attack, as I predicted. They beat the Patriots at the their own game, with just enough big plays on defense and special teams to post the victory. New England isn't going to lose its second game in-a-row, especially not without a fight. But Pittsburgh has cruised to 2-0 with easy blowout victories against the Titans and the Texans, behind a stout defense and back-to-back 100 yard games from Willie Parker.

New England has a much better defense than Houston and Tennessee, and will be aiming to slow down Parker. Roethlisburger will again have to prove that he can perform well without depending on the rushing attack. With New England in its 4-3 alignment, Parker won't find as much room to run, and the game will come down to whether or not Roethlisburger can consistenly move his team down the field with his arm. The Patriots win in a close one, 20-17, as Roethlisburger makes costly mistakes in the passing game, and New England bounces back.

The Giants are coming off a dominant victory against the Saints, looking to go to 3-0 against the Chargers. San Diego is 0-2, losing two close games to Dallas and Denver, two games which they should have won. San Diego hasn't used LaDainian Tomlinson enough. Tomlinson has only 124 yards on 38 carries, an average of 3.3 yards per carry. The line isn't getting the job done, and is giving up on the run too early. With a 14-3 lead in the second half against the Broncos, the Chargers should have given Tomlinson the rock on every play. Instead Brees threw a costly interception, and after Champ Bailey took it the house, San Diego lost all of its momentum.

Against the Giants, they must find a way to get Tomlinson involved in the passing attack, as he has not caught a pass is so far this season. Lost in all this is Eli Manning is making his first appearance in San Diego, the team he refused to play for when he was drafted by them 2 years ago. San Diego's D (and its fans) will give Manning a rude welcome, putting pressure on the young quarterback, forcing him into costly mistakes. Tiki Barber won't find much room to run, and Tomlinson will run all over a Giants defense that is not good as adverstised. The Chargers are too angry to fall to 0-3. LT leades the way in a 24-13 San Diego victory


Flashback

Truth:

"The Patriots take an early loss as they struggle to get their run game going and Julius Peppers terrorizes Tom Brady"

"Carson Palmer has a big game against a Vikings defense that is not as good as everyone thinks.."

"Things only get worse for the Texans this week against the Steelers. The one positive from this game is Dominick Davis picks up a late TD when the game is already over.."

"The Eagles get their offense going against a 49ers D that taktes a step back.."

Myth:

"The Colts win in a shootout and everyone stops talking about how much improved their defense is and focuses again on how good Manning is."

"The difference in this game is McGahee's ability to gain yards wtihout much to work with and Cadillac's failure to do so..as Buffalo goes to 2-0.."

"The Ravens win a defensive struggle..."

Wednesday, September 21, 2005

Observations from the First 2 Weeks..

Daunte Culpepper has shown that much of his success was tied to Randy Moss. He has thrown as 8 interceptions (the combined total of TDs of Donovan McNabb (6) and Peyton Manning (2). The Vikings are 0-2, and if Culpepper doesn't get it together against the Saints this weekend, they're not gonna make it to the playoffs.

Kansas City's and Indianaoplis' defenses have both played extremely well so far. The Colts have given up only 10 points in 2 games. Granted the first game was against Baltimore, who couldn't score against a high school football team. Yhey only allowed 3 points to Jacksonville, who put up 26 points against Seattle in week 1. Kansas City did a good job shutting down the Raiders on Sunday night in 23-17 victory. However, it should be noted that the Raiders had 2 touchdowns called back on penalties, one of them (the offensive pass interference call on Randy Moss) was questionable to say the least. Regardless all the matters in the NFL is the bottom line. Both teams' defenses have gotten the job done the first 2 weeks.

Washington is 2-0! Maybe Joe Gibbs knows what he is doing. Their defense still looks solid, and if Mark Brunell can continue to hit Santana Moss deep ( as he did twice for touchdowns in the final 4 minutes of their Monday night victory over Dallas, 14-13), then the Redksins could be legitimate contenders in the NFC East, and maybe in the NFC.

Stephen Davis has actually played this season, and despite my prediction (that he would never play again), he has looked pretty good. He has 4 tds, rushing for 158 yards on 38 attempts, helping lead the Panthers over the Patriots in a surprising 27-17 victory. The Panthers defense looks very good, which may be enough to get them deep in the playoffs season. The only snag might be Jake Delhomme hasn't looked very good. That interception he threw against the Patriots looked like a Jake Plummer pass. I'm tired of the "Poor Man's Tom Brady" analogies he has been getting.

The Eagles are in last place in the NFC East! Ok, so they are only one game back, and they have a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week. They definitely won't clinch the division in the the fourth week of the season as they did last year. This one could come down to the final week, if Drew Bledsoe and Mark Brunell can continue playing well. That's a big IF, considering both are in the twilight of their careers, but it could happen...

Priest Holmes and Curtis Martin both look like they are done. Holmes went out for a series with a shoulder injury against the Raiders and Larry Johnson scored almost immediately. Johnson looks much better than Holmes, running for 151 yards on 18 carries (8.4 ypc), while Holmes has 41 carries for 160 yards (3.9 ypc). Vermeil continues to use Holmes for two-thirds of the carries, despite the fact that Johnson is doing more with the same blocking. Martin has rushed for 129 yards on 51 carries, a whopping 2.5 yards per carry. Now he has a knee strain. He is 32, and doesn't appear to have much, if any gas left in the tank. He has two tough defenses coming up next (Jacksonville and Baltimore). I don't think he will play more than 8 games this season, and he won't be a legitimate fantasy option. The Jets will wish they had kept Lamont Jordan around to split carries with Martin this season.

Tennesse came out of nowhere and blew out Baltimore in week 2. Maybe this team will go somewhere this year. Now I am not saying they are going to make the playoffs, but 8-8 is a real possibility.

The Saints got screwed by the NFL. Would the Saints have beaten the Giants if they didn't have to travel to New York for a "home" game? Probably not, but they became the 2nd team in NFL history that had to do a silent snap count at a home game (the first being the Cardinals). It just wasn't fair that the Giants got to play at home. Some of the Giants players commented after the game that it was the loudest crowd they had ever heard! Apparently, painting one of the endzones with Saints' colors and having 3 Doors Down perform at halftime were the only signs that this was a home game for the Saints. And since when did having a band from the home team's city give a team an advantage?

The Giants and Buccaneers are both 2-0, and look like legitimate contenders. The Buccaneers blew out the Bills 19-3 after shutting down the Vikings in week 1. Their defense is looking very impressive, and Cadillac Williams drove through a pretty stingy Buffalo defense. He has posted 100 yard rushing in his first two games and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Eli Manning has shown flashes of "getting it" in the first two weeks, and the combination of Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs (the new "Thunder and Lightning") is very effective.

How my fantasy teams have fared:

0-2 - Thanks to a late collapse by Aaron Brooks and a late sack by Roy Williams, I fell to 0-2. Ouch
On the bright side, I traded Eli Manning and Deuce Mcalister for Donovan McNabb, unfortunately the trade did not take effect until Tuesday. McNabb vs. the Raiders this week. I am penciling him in for at least 3 TDs, and that is being conservative.

0-2 - I am trailing my 4 points. Joe Horn catches the ball near the endzone, he stretches for the endzone, and FUMBLES! I lose by 6, thanks to -2 from the fumble.
Maybe I should take out Daunte Culpepper. This season he has given me a grand total of -2 points. My backup. None other than Byron Leftwich, who is hurt...

1-1 - My formidable trio of receivers (Torry Holt, Roy Williams, Chad Johnson) all blow up, giving my first win of any league in a blowout.

Monday, September 19, 2005

Fantasy Football Running Diary

9 p.m.
So here I am watching the closing minutes of the Cowboys/Redskins game. I'm losing by 4 points in my league. It was tied but then Roy Williams got a sack for the Cowboys. My league has individual defensive players. I'm gonna drop to 0-2 in my league unless my last player, Marcus Washington can somehow come up with an interception or a sack. The Redskins have the ball and they're losing. There's no way in hell they are coming back.

9:10 p.m.
Oh my god, the Redskins just threw a bomb for a TD. After the extra point, they'll be up by 1. I still have a chance. The Cowboys are going to get the ball back. There is 2 minutes left. The only problem is the guy I am playing has Drew Bledsoe and Julius Jones. Here is what needs to happen. Drew Bledsoe throws an interception and Marcus Washington returns it for TD. That would pretty much guarantee victory for me. Or Marcus Washington sacks Bledsoe twice in-a-row. Here we go.

9:12 p.m.
This is what football is all about. Watching the end of the game, not because you care which team wins, but because you're praying a defensive player is going to get a sack or make an interception. Damn it , I don't have a chance. If anything, I am going to lose by even more. Jones just rushed for 5 more yards. Incomplete pass by Bledsoe. There's still a chance.

9:17 p.m.
This is horrible. I'm losing everything tonight. In my other league I would have won if Joe Horn hadn't fumbled on the 1 yard line. He was about to score his second TD of the game, giving me the victory, but he fumbled on the 1 yard line. Damn it. Not that it matters that the at the time the Saints were losing by 17 and there was only 50 seconds left in the game. I'm not addicted or anything though.

9:20 p.m.
The Cowboys just turned it over on downs. It's all over for me. Washington didn't get a tackle, interception, or sack. Nothing. My team would have beaten any other team in the league, except the one that had Roy Williams, picking up that sack. The clock is ticking down. Washington played it conservative and they're about to punt. Let's hope Marcus Washington is on the punt coverage team.

9:24 p.m.
The Cowboys didn't return the punt, so no points for Washington. 36 seconds left, Bledsoe throws incomplete. Marcus Washington needs to come up big for me here. Send him on a blitz. Incomplete again. My heart skipped a beat as the Redskins nearly got an interception. 25 yard completion. Clock running down. The Cowboys have a chance. 10 seconds left. They are almost in FG range. Incomplete. 4 seconds left. They have to throw in the endzone. It's too far to kick a FG. It's all over. The Cowboys tried a screen pass to Julius Jones. Great more points for Jones and Bledsoe. What a disaster. How the hell did the Redskins win this game. Freaking ridiculous. I'm 0-2. Oh well there is always next week....