Fantasy Breakdown for Week 1

Well here we are at week 1 already. I thought would share my lineup and give some reasoning and reccomendations for the lineup I am using for week 1, and maybe along the way you can extract some useful nuggets of information. The league I am in is a PPR league, or points per reception, which makes it different from most fantasy leagues. Players that catch a lot of passes become extremely valuable, and receivers become much more important.

In most leagues, receivers are a crapshoot, even with the best receivers. Torri Holt and Marvin Harrison will have 50 yards receiving and no touchdowns one week, then blow up the next. But in PPR leagues, there is a lot of value in guys like Donald Driver, who you can almost always count for 100 receptions a season, but who would normally get overlooked because the Packers are a disaster. Also running backs that catch the ball a lot out of the backfield are extremley valuable, which is why I snagged Ladanian Tomlinson and Lamont Jordan. In my opinion, LT is the number one overall player in PPR leagues, but I was miraculously able to grab in the fourth position, due to the incompetence of my fellow league participants.

....Running backs...

I decided to leave Willie Parker and Reuben Droughns on the bench this week, instead going with Reggie Bush at the W/R swing position and Lamont Jordan and LT((both no-brainer week 1 starts) as my RBs. Miami has a stout run defense, and without Roethlisburger, the Steelers are going to play really conservative, which means a lot of carries for Parker, but not many yards, because Miami knows this is the plan as well. Parker may have a touchdown and decent yards(75), but he doesn't typically catch many passes. I am rolling the dice with Reggie Bush in week 1. The Saints will be platooning him with Deuce McAlister, but will look to get him involved in the passing game early, and he may even pick up some points on punt return. Cleveland has a solid defense, but I can see Bush easily rushing for 50 yards, catching 5 passes for 60 yards, and getting 30 yards on punt return. There's also the thrill of throwing him in there in week 1.

...Wide Receivers....

I was able to snag Darrell Jackson off waivers last week, and I will stow him on the bench for now, and wait to make sure he is healthy before I throw him in. I have a lot of depth at wide receiver with Chris Chambers and Donald Driver as my top 2. I thought T.J. Houshmandzadeh was a steal as a number three receiver, but he is questionable for week 1, so I will likely go with Lee Evans this week. Housh is obviously a much better player and if he starts, will rack up more points than Evans. But I want to make sure I don't get 0 points in the WR position. I don't think Housh will suit up in week 1 because he was downgraded to questionable on Thursday, but I'll be watching closely.

....Quarterbacks...

Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick is a nice combo at quarterback and I am excited about the possibilities. Vick never puts up many passing yards, but he always finds a way to move the chains and lead his team to scores. And when the Falcons get inside the 5-yard line, there is no QB I would rather have than Vick, because the play-action is almost unstopable with him, especially when Warrick Dunn is running the ball effectively. Now Vick has historically faired poorly against Carolina, but it is week 1, and teams typically aren't crisp in their tackling in the first week of the season, so I think he will accumulate two TDs this week, with 50 yards rushing and 150 passing. McNabb on the other hand will have a field day against Houston. Hopefully the Eagles don't show too much balance, and McNabb is able to pick up all the TDs, and not Bryan Westbrook and Corell Buckhalter.

.......the rest...

Kickers and defense don't require too much thought, so I won't waste my or your time.
As for my matchup this week, the Yahoo! predictions obviously favor me. My opponent is not particularly deep at any position, except running back, but Clinton Portis will be limited with his shoulder injury. And Stephen Jackson is going against the one of the toughest run defenses in the league(Denver), so I am confident he won't have a big day. He is not much of a receiver out of the backfield, so he's not a high scoring player.

Check back on Sunday night to see my reflections on the week. Feel free to email me at steve(at)ionmail(dot)com to give me feedback. Good luck...and to those of you that made the free $1100 bet with Mansion.com this week, GO STEELERS!!!

Week 1 Projected Stats(As calculated by Yahoo!)

QB
D. McNabb (Phi - QB) @Hou 21.68
Mi. Vick (Atl - QB) @Car 12.74

WR
C. Chambers (Mia - WR) @Pit 10.11
D. Driver (GB - WR) Chi 8.20
L. Evans (Buf - WR) @NE 6.31

RB
L. Tomlinson (SD - RB) @Oak 18.66
L. Jordan (Oak - RB) SD 12.86

TE
L. Smith (Phi - TE) @Hou 7.97

W/R
R. Bush (NO - RB) @Cle 10.91

K
M. Stover (Bal - K) @TB 10.51
R. Lindell (Buf - K) @NE 8.10

D
K. Mitchell (KC - DL) Cin 9.14

DB
G. Wilson (NYG – DB) Ind 11.12

DB
K. Rhodes (NYJ - DB) @Ten 11.32

DL
L. Tatupu (Sea - DL) @Det 11.63

DL
C. June (Ind - DL) @NYG 12.35

Total 183.61


QB
M. Bulger (StL - QB) Den 16.58
B. Favre (GB - QB) Chi 9.12

WR
H. Ward (Pit - WR) Mia 11.45
A. Johnson (Hou - WR) Phi 10.69
A. Lelie (Atl - WR) @Car 4.50

RB
R. Johnson (Cin - RB) @KC 11.65
S. Jackson (StL - RB) Den 10.88

TE B. Watson (NE - TE) 3.88

W/R Ma. Clayton (Bal - WR) @TB 6.07

K
A. Vinatieri (Ind - K) @NYG 8.75
J. Elam (Den - K) @StL 9.44

D
De. Smith (SF - DL) @Ari 10.19

DB
N. Clements (Buf - DB) @NE 10.65

DB
C. Gamble (Car - DB) Atl 10.35

DL
K. Morrison (Oak - DL) SD 11.63

DL
M. Strahan (NYG - DL) Ind 8.38

Total 154.21


Matchup: 183.61 - 154.21

A nice easy win for week 1(on paper)